The Australian Dollar next move

Hi Traders,

Although another small rally to 0.795 is still possible, the AUDUSD (now at 0.7920) should resume the major downtrend to 0.75 soon.

THE ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the Aussie is unfolding a huge a-b-c retracement wave (since July 2011) where the last leg (wave-c) is supposed to be made out of 5 large waves down. 

Four of these five waves can be observed in their entirety on the monthly and weekly charts. With the top on Jan 26, their deployment is now complete.

This means that the formation of the fifth wave down begun on Jan 26, as you can see in the daily and 4-hours charts.

Besides, the weekly and daily charts display clearly the large a-b-c that formed wave-4, which in turn, is one of the large five waves above mentioned.

CONCLUSION:

For the time being, this new phase should take the Aussie down to the 0.75  area. Subsequently, unless a "surprise extension" to 0.85 occurs, the Australian Dollar should take a dive well below 0.75.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hours chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

The Euro topping

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD (now at 1.2412) apparently topped at 1.2555, although I thought  it would have ended its run a bit higher. It's now supposed get back to 1.244-1.246 and then resume the downturn to the 1.20-1.18 area and below.


THE ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the Euro is unfolding a huge a-b-c retracement wave (since July 2008) where the last leg (wave-c) is supposed to be made out of 5 large waves down. 

Four of these five waves can be observed in their entirety on the monthly and weekly charts. Their deployment is complete.

Conversely, the formation of the fifth wave down has just begun, as you can see in the daily and 4-hours charts.

Besides, the weekly and daily charts display clearly the large a-b-c that formed wave-4, which in turn, is one of the large five waves above mentioned.

CONCLUSION:

For the time being, this new phase should take the Euro down to the 1.20-1.18 area. Subsequently, unless a "surprise extension" to 1.30 occurs, the Euro should take a dive well below 1.18.



Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hours chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

The Pound Debacle

Hi Traders,

The Pound (now at 1.4025) dived as predicted in my previous newsletter. Unless a surprises rally to 1.45 occurs, it is now supposed to bounce back to 1.41 before resuming the major downtrend.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the Cable is performing a huge a-b-c where  wave-c is made of 5 waves down. Four of these waves are already fully deployed. The making of the fifth wave has just started.

The weekly chart displays the end of major-wave-4 but it also shows that the theoretical target is 1.45. This is one of the two reasons why I said that a last minute "surprise rally" is still possible. The second reason is that the wave count actually allows it.

The daily and the 4-hours charts display four small waves down from the top at 1.4350.

The 4-hours and the 1-hour charts suggest a limited rebound to 1.407-1.410 before resuming the downtrend.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hours chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

The massive depreciation of the USD vs YUAN

Hi Traders,

The us dollar vs Chinese Yuan (now at 6.298) is bottoming down, maybe around 6.27 or earlier. A retracement to 6.44 might start soon.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and the daily charts show the impressive depreciation of the US dollar since January 2017, just about when the new US president took his office. 

Considering 100% the range between the highest high and the lowest low of the USD vs YUAN  (6.9874 - 6.0153), the USD dropped a wopping 72% in 12 months.

Between 1.29 and 1.25 (see the target at 1.27 on the weekly chart), the USD might unfold a retracement wave to 6.44 as displayed in the daily chart.




Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hours chart, click to enlarge

The Pound: a dead duck in the water?

Hi Traders,

Although I originally expected the Pound (now at 1.42) to top around 1.45, it  might not be able to make it. 

Even if the GBPUSD attempts another rally to 1.45, it should be the last one and the start of a major downtrend might be in sight.

Consequently, the top we have seen at 1.4345 might be the very end of the rally started on Oct 2016 at 1.1825.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and the weekly charts display the end of major wave 4. They also show the theoretical target at 1.45.

The daily and 4-hours charts display the last wave count.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

$-hours chart, click to enlarge