USDJPY: What's Next

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ANALYSIS

The USDJPY (now at 111.36) has just started a new rally to the area 124.1-124.8.


A bit of History

The Historical Chart displays 5 waves downwards from the moment the USA unilaterally terminated the Bretton Woods Agreement in August 1971. See Also YouTube for more info.

Before WWII the USDJPY was two ¥ for one $. In 1948 the USDJPY rate was fixed at 360 ¥ for one $ and this rate was kept till 1972. From that moment on, the YEN slowly recovered to 75 ¥ for one $. It was Oct 31, 2011. 

ELLIOTT WAVES

Which type of Elliott Wave Pattern started off from 2011 onward? At present it looks like a huge a-b-c. See monthly chart and weekly chart.

The daily chart suggests that wave c will probably made out of 5 waves. Wave 1 and 2 (black, font 10) are in place and wave three is on its wave to 118.

The 4-hour chart shows the a-b-c- that made wave 2.

What are the possible targets for the USDJPY? The closest one is 124-125 but a long term Gann projection suggest that it could easily top at 160-180, let alone that the theoretical value is actually 217.




Historical chart. Click to enlarge

Monthly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

USDSGD: WHAT"S NEXT

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ANALYSIS

The USDSGD (now at 1.3812) started a rally up. If this is the beginning of major wave five - see monthly chart - it could reach the area 1.464-1.473.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Even if the monthly chart displays five waves up, the latter might not be finished. The weekly chart and the daily chart reveal that the this major wave still miss the last wave up.

The 4-hour chart and the 1-hour chart show that all the waves down are in place and the last wave up just started over.

Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart - Click to enlarge

1-hour Chart - Click to enlarge

AUDUSD: What's Next

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.753) seems determined to rally to 0.76-0.77 but this time, given the Elliott Wave pattern, there is a real possibility to make it to the area 0.806-0.8165.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays a compression formation (a and b) which is usually followed by three large waves up from b.

The daily chart shows that, from b, Wave 1 and 2 (out of 3 waves) have been completed whilst the third wave - made out of 5 waves up - just started. 

Theoretically, it should reach the 0.81 level.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

EURO: WHAT'S NEXT

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.1249) might be close to a top-reverse in the area  1.130-1.146. This could start a downtrend towards the parity (1 EUR = 1 USD).

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows a compression area (1-2-3-4 in red). If the wave count is correct, the Euro is bound to a sharp move to the area 1.10-1.00.

The weekly chart shows clearly the top-and-reverse area at 1.130-1.146. The daily and 4-hour charts confirm that the target is very close.




Monthly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

1-hour chart. Click to enlarge

GOLD: WHAT'S NEXT

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1292.3) is very close to the target at $1.301-$1308 where it could  reverse to  $1259-$1249 or lower.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly, weekly and daily charts shows that Gold is unfolding a new pattern that look similar to a "retracement-wave-4", which is part of the downtrend started in 2011. 

This type of wave is supposed to bring the yellow metal down to the area $1195-$1206. Subsequently, Gold would rally to $1532 - or higher - in 5 waves.

Monthly Chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly Chart. Click to enlarge

Daily Chart. Click to enlarge

Canadian: What's Next

Hi Traders,

The USDCAD (now at 1.34884) seems to be heading to the support at 1.322. Possible long term target the area 1.283-1.267 and also around 1.213

ELLIOTT WAVES

The historical chart display the completion of the major a-b-c retracement in c 2, (53c2, top right in the monthly chart)

The monthly chart shows the same huge a-b-c from 0.905 to 1.469. Then, in the weekly chart, the new trend started with wave 1 and wave 2, the latter being the typical continuation pattern.

The daily chart shows the same continuation pattern in its entirety (a-b-c in blue) and the targets at the area 1.329-1.328 and around 1.322.

The 4-hour chart displays 4 waves down, out of 5 (in magenta). The 5th is on its way. Note also the support at 1.3454.


Historical chart. Click to enlarge

Monthly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

OIL: what's next

Hi Traders,

Although it's briefly retracing to $49, the WTI OIL (now at $47.71) seems to be  heading towards the area $40.6-$37.6.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart show that the WTI OIL completed 5 waves up and started a retracement down to the area $40.6-$37.

The daily chart shows a Fibonacci confluence (K) around $45.38-$45.67 where the WTI OIL could complete the first set of 5 small waves down (from point 2 on the right hand side of the daily chart). Besides,  $43 and $38.85 seem to be important supports.

Finally, the 4-hour chart displays the target area at $47.06-$46.96 that I previously set sometimes ago (it went down to $46.72) and also the new possible target at $49.21.



Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

The Yuan reversal

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH (now at 6.80) has topped at 6.9874 and it's now reversing to 6.65. The Yuan depreciated considerably (from 6.0153 to 6.9874) in the last 24 months . 

MAJOR SUPPORTS & TARGETS

1) 6.6488
3) 6.5634
5) 6.5444

ELLIOTT WAVES

Given that the historical chart below doesn't allow any Elliott wave recognition, I'm forced to consider two quite opposite scenarios.

However, in both cases the USDCNH short term target is down to 6.56 Yuan per USD.

1) If the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is part of a 5 wave pattern, the USDCNH is now performing the retracement wave 4  down to 6.56, followed by a new uptrend to 9 USDCNH and over.

2) Instead, if the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is just a typical 3 waves retracement, the uptrend is over. In this case the USDCNH is just resuming the major downtrend - started in January 1994 at 8.72 - to move well below 6.56.

Below the historical chart as well as the weekly, daily and 4-hour charts





Historical chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

4-hour chart - Click to enlarge

Watch out for this Major Time Turning Point

Hi Traders,

Gann numbers seem to be pointing to a very close TTP (time turning point) around December 19 plus/minus 1 trading day.

If this occurs, the US Dollar might temporarily top-and-reverse with major repercussions over the whole spectrum of currencies and commodities.

NOTE: volatility could be wilder across the commodities then with the currencies.

SOME POSSIBLE PIVOT POINTS

GOLD (now at 1131): reversal in the area 1114-1129, TARGET: around 1476 or the area 1526-1532.

WTI OIL (now at 51.17): reversal in the area 49.70-49.87, TARGET: area 61.49-63.58.

EURUSD (now at 1.0438): reversal in the area 1.028-1.036, TARGET: 1.138.

AUDUSD (now at 0.7358): reversal around 0.7330, TARGET: 0.7468.

USDSGD (now at 1.4413): reversal in the area 1.4685-1.4725, TARGET: around 1.41 and also 1.37.

USDJPY: (now at 118.09): reversal in the area 118.8-120.3, TARGET: 110.72-111.89.

YUAN DEPRECIATION TO STOP SOON?

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH (now at 6.7780) should top soon as it is close to completing all wave patterns started in January 2014.

TARGETS & ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show that we are close to the completion of primary and secondary waves to the top. This is also confirmed by the wave count of the minor waves in the daily and 4-hour charts.

Unless a wave extension occurs, the Yuan should top around 6.87-7.00. The subsequent retracement should bring it slowly down to the area 6.44.

Note: I cannot be more precise about the targets as there isn't much history about the Chinese currency.



Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

GOLD TILL YEAR END

 Hi Traders,

Gold (now at $1265.14) could rally up to $1278-81 or $1301-04 but only to resume the retracement down to the area $1191-1208 (being $1210.62 the theoretical value). That support would mark the beginning of the new $300 uptrend to $1521-31.

TARGETS & ELLIOT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that Gold is still performing wave 2 down (the retracement) to $1208-1191. Besides, the area $1142-31 cannot be ruled out from the likely targets.

The weekly and daily charts reveal all the targets:  $1278-81, $1301-04, $1131-42 as well the final targets at $1521-31

The 4-hour chart shows more in detail that wave 8 is still unfolding, given the targets at $1278-81 and $1301-04.

Finally the 1-hour chart is even more explicit in revealing an hourly target at $1156-52 before the rally to $1278-81 and $1301-04, 


Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

WHERE IS GOLD NOW AND WHERE IS GOING TO GO?

Hi Traders,

I get almost daily inquiries about Gold. Where is going to top & reverse? Will Gold be affected by the FED interest hike? Here's what I found.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The interpretation of the monthly, weekly and daily charts below is crucial to understand the future dynamics of Gold (now at $1314.74). 

The monthly chart shows that the Gold 5 years correction ended at $1046 (i). Then, a major rally started. This chart also displays two targets: $1435 and $1532.

The weekly chart reveals that the new uptrend - intiated at 555c - needs another thrust up to complete wave 3, possibly to $1432-40.

Note: the daily chart shows that Gold (although a brief jump to the area $1324-7 is still possible) might bottom around $1283-86 before starting the new rally to $1432-40.

BTW, that top at $1432-40 could coincide with the FED interest hike. After topping at this level, wave 3 would be followed by another correction (wave 4) to $1312-21, although $1252 is the theoretical target. This correction could last quite a few months.

Finally, wave 5 should take Gold up to $1522-32 or higher.

(i) I predicted this low to be in the area 1043-1032 two years ago!

Monthly chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly chart - Click to enlarge

Daily chart - Click to enlarge

GOLD NEW PHASE

Hi Traders,

Yes, I got it wrong on Gold. I tripped over a common mistake with Elliott Wave analysis. BTW, the new uptrend is in full steam and the limit seems to be only the sky.

TARGETS

1) $1433-35
2) $1475
2) $1525-35


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show the beginning of a new uptrend. At present the closest targets for a retracements is the area $1427-$1441.

Note the ABC retracement from $1922 to $1046. This looks very much like a Cycle or Supercycle wave 2. If this is true, Gold just started a new very long wave 3.

It also means that people are divesting from their investments in shares, bonds and even cash to buy Gold as a safe heaven. Given the expected length of the unfolding wave 3,  this period of economic uncertainty and instability may last quite a long time.



Monthly Chart - click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - click to enlarge

Daily Chart - click to enlarge

4-hour Chart - click to enlarge