WHERE IS GOLD NOW AND WHERE IS GOING TO GO?

Hi Traders,

I get almost daily inquiries about Gold. Where is going to top & reverse? Will Gold be affected by the FED interest hike? Here's what I found.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The interpretation of the monthly, weekly and daily charts below is crucial to understand the future dynamics of Gold (now at $1314.74). 

The monthly chart shows that the Gold 5 years correction ended at $1046 (i). Then, a major rally started. This chart also displays two targets: $1435 and $1532.

The weekly chart reveals that the new uptrend - intiated at 555c - needs another thrust up to complete wave 3, possibly to $1432-40.

Note: the daily chart shows that Gold (although a brief jump to the area $1324-7 is still possible) might bottom around $1283-86 before starting the new rally to $1432-40.

BTW, that top at $1432-40 could coincide with the FED interest hike. After topping at this level, wave 3 would be followed by another correction (wave 4) to $1312-21, although $1252 is the theoretical target. This correction could last quite a few months.

Finally, wave 5 should take Gold up to $1522-32 or higher.

(i) I predicted this low to be in the area 1043-1032 two years ago!

Monthly chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly chart - Click to enlarge

Daily chart - Click to enlarge

GOLD NEW PHASE

Hi Traders,

Yes, I got it wrong on Gold. I tripped over a common mistake with Elliott Wave analysis. BTW, the new uptrend is in full steam and the limit seems to be only the sky.

TARGETS

1) $1433-35
2) $1475
2) $1525-35


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show the beginning of a new uptrend. At present the closest targets for a retracements is the area $1427-$1441.

Note the ABC retracement from $1922 to $1046. This looks very much like a Cycle or Supercycle wave 2. If this is true, Gold just started a new very long wave 3.

It also means that people are divesting from their investments in shares, bonds and even cash to buy Gold as a safe heaven. Given the expected length of the unfolding wave 3,  this period of economic uncertainty and instability may last quite a long time.



Monthly Chart - click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - click to enlarge

Daily Chart - click to enlarge

4-hour Chart - click to enlarge

GOLD to resume major downtrend

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1269.00) should top around $1,306 and maybe the area $1,3019-1,324. Then, it should  resume the major downtrend to the final target just below $900. If this occurs, it's going to be a $400 dollar juicy trade.

TARGETS

First up to the area $1306-24.
Then down to $1184.
Final Long Term Target: area $882-861

ELLIOTT WAVES

The 1-hour chart below shows that we just need a small wave up to conclude the present rally which started on 03/12/2015. It might take 2-3 weeks. The theoretical top is $1306.87 but it might travel up to the area $1319-1324.

The really interesting thing in the weekly chart below is that there is a huge a-b-c retracement in the making, where Wave C (not labelled yet) is still unfolding with 5 waves (magenta) down. Of these 5 waves, we are going to see the completion of Wave 4 right now. Then Wave 5 should take Gold down to the area $882-861.

The monthly chart below shows the targets (blue lines)




Montly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

1-hour chart. Click to enlarge

AUDUSD DILEMMA

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD is going through a wave configuration that could ultimately lead to 2 very different outcomes. Let's see what's the situation.

At the first glance, the monthly and weekly charts below seem to display a completion of all waves down, setting the stage for a major reversal.

In fact the weekly chart shows a group of 3 "fives" at the bottom right. This is normally a sign that a downtrend ended and a new uptrend just started over.

However, a more careful examination of the daily and 4-hour charts  reveals a tricky situation: although the AUDUSD is actually moving up, this could lead to  two different outcomes:

• case one: the new major uptrend started already and the Aussie dollar is heading to 0.85.

• case two: this is just a temporary uptrend that is heading only to 0.7849 and reversing down. 

As much depends by the current wave labeling in the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts below, I provided below 2 separate interpretation of the daily and 4-hour charts, named:

• daily chart 1
• daily chart 2
• 4-hour chart 1
• 4-hour chart 2

CONCLUSION

At present, case one displayed in the daily-chart-1, the 4-hour-chart-1 seem the most sensible interpretation of the wave sub-division and so the target at 0.85.

This seems to be confirmed by the wave sub-division of the 1-hour chart below.

However, Let's keep an open mind. 

PS: I'm trying to convert my newsletters into videos but I'm still learning. I'll let you know.

Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart 1- Click to enlarge

Daily Chart 2 - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart 1 - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart 2 - Click to enlarge

1-hour Chart - Click to enlarge

AUDUSD bottoming soon

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.7063) might stage a small rally to the 0.72 area but only to resume the downtrend that should take it to the area 0.6680-0.6633.

Whatever low the AUDUSD is going to hit (see TARGETS below), this should mark the bottom of the downtrend started on July 27, 2011 at 1.1080. Hence. of a new major uptrend should start right afterwards.

TARGETS

first the 0.71 area
then
likely: 0.6765-0.6680
possibly: 0.6680-0.6633
maybe: 0.6406-0.6284

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily and the 4-hour chart show that the Aussie just started wave 5 downwards which should mark the end of the major downtrend.

The 1-hour chart reveals that this very short term rally could stop below 0.7097.

See the targets in the monthly chart.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

GOLD last dive

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1114) topped at 1128.06 within the target area at 1126-1133 (see weekly and daily chart).

Unless an "extension" occurs, the yellow metal should climb up to 1122-24 but only to start the very last downtrend to the area at 1006-990 (see monthly chart).

At that low, Gold is supposed to "hit the low & reverse up". In so doing, the downtrend started on September 06, 2011 at 1920.70 will be filed to history.

NOTE

Some Elliott Wave analysts might claim that "the expected final target" should sit in the area 861-846. 

I have no objection to that, as it's 

• right between the 61.8% to the 66% retracement, as it often happens.
• right in the middle of "wave 4" (see the monthly chart).
• wave 4 (in the major uptrend) belongs to a minor grade (as required by the theory), if compared of the bigger grade of the a-b-c-d-e retracement that it's ending right now.

However, at present, the area at 1006-990 is my favourite target. We'll see.

PS: 

Just a curiosity: level $1085.84 marks the 50% retracement of the major uptrend started in 1999 and ended in 2011.


TARGETS

Short Term Supports

- 1098
- 1089
- 1082
- 1071
- 1034

LONG TERM TARGETS

likely: 1034
possible: 1006-990
maybe: 861-846


ELLIOTT WAVES

A confirmation that 1128.06 is the top of wave 4 comes from the daily and 4-hour charts. Here, wave 4 is made of an a-b-c, which is the way it should be.

In turn, wave c is sub-divided in 5 waves, which is again the way it should be. 

Hence, unless we see a 3 wave  extension up, all ducks seem to be in a raw to start wave 5 on the wave down.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-huour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

EURUSD last retracement of the year

Hi Traders,

Next 2-3 weeks should probably display a very thin market. However, the EURUSD (now at 1.08666), should slide slowly to the area at 1.0705-1.0690 before resuming the main uptrend.

TARGETS:

first down to the area at 1.0705-1.0690

then up to
1) 1.1101
2) 1.1387
3) 1.1680

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly chart show that the giant 

​ retracement wave 

​"

abc-X-abc

​"​

​ (or 3-3-5​)

 ended in March 2015

​.​

​ ​

​This implied

 

​

​

a retracement of 71%

​ and ​

​

the end of the 

​major ​

downtrend started in July 2008

​.​

As displayed in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the  EURUSD also completed the very first wave of the new uptrend and it's now

​​

 very close to 

​the ​

end 

​of ​

the subsequent retracement wave 2 in the area at 1.0705-1.0690.

That area should see the beginning of the new wave 3 up.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Jade Capital Partners

Hi Traders,


For your knowledge, this is what I do. For more details contact me or Jade Capital Partners by following the link below.

Jade Capital Partners - Mario D. Conti

GOLD: the end of the downtrend?

Hi Traders,

For the last 2.5 years I repeated that Gold (now at 1076) was going to bottom down in the area 1032-1044. It actually touched the support at 1046 on Dec 03 and finally reversed a downtrend lasting since Sept 06, 2011.

If this analysis is correct we just started a new major uptrend that should take it to the area at 1520-1530.

NOTE: The Elliott Wave Analysts usually work on a possible alternative waves count. It's worth noting that both configurations point upwards, although the secondary target is limited to level 1307. 


CLOSE  RANGE TARGETS: 

a) 1098
b) 1129
c) 1170


LONG RANGE TARGETS: 

a) 1322-1334
b) 1431
c) 1520-1530


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display the lowest low at 1046 i.e. very close to the suggested target area at 1044-1032. Note the blue lines (targets) in both charts.


The daily chart shows the very end of the 4 years trend (51 months). The 4-hour and 1-hour charts display a possible entry point at 1069.50 (blue line).

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

MONDAY IN BRIEF: AUDUSD, EURUSD, GOLD, and SPI200

Hi Traders,

Welcome to Monday in Brief. Please, see the charts after the short comment. Some targets below might take a while to be fetched. For more info, fell free to call Jade Capital Partners

In Brief:

The AUDUSD (now at 0.7234) seems to be retracing a bit down to 0.7155 and then top around 0.7300. Subsequently it should resume the downtrend to 0.6855. 

If the EURUSD (now at 1.0634) bottoms down at 1.0566, it should start a rebound up to 1.1041-1.1090. If it goes through that support at 1.0566 it might move down to 1.01-1.02.

GOLD (now at 1077) might temporarily move up a bit but is still weak and heading down to the area at 1041-1.034 or even 1009-989 before starting the new uptrend. 

Finally, even if the SPI200 (now at 5265) retrace a bit to 5160-5147, it should reach the target at 5650-5687 very soon.

AUDUSD daily, click to enlarge

EURUSD 4-hour, click to enlarge

GOLD weekly, click to enlarge

SPI200 weekly, click to enlarge