AUDUSD, right on target

Hi Traders,

last month I said that the main target was around the support at 0.9380. The AUDUSD reached 0.9325 and bounced back.

SITUATION

Check the 4 chart: the Aussie reached the major support with 5 smaller waves and bounced back to 0.9665.

TARGETS

Short term (4-hour & 1-hour chart)

The AUDUSD is expected to retrace to the area 0.9558-0.9544 (1-hour chart),  then the uptrend should resume to the area 0.9764-0.9742.

Medium term (daily chart)

This initial pullback is part of a major "two-step pattern", a 3 waves pattern  upwards that should finally take the AUDUSD to the area 0.9959-1.0010.

Long term (weekly chart)

Around the parity, the downtrend should resume to 0.8877 and 0.8578 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

SPI200, almost there

Hi Traders,

As I said on May 28th, the SPI200, now at 4805, is believed to perform a large Zig-Zag till mid September.

Given the main uptrend, this is a major correction named "wave 4", probably an "a-b-c-d-e" (or just an a-b-c).

Right now, we might be close to the bottom of "wave a".

NOTE: wait before entering the new uptrend named  "wave b" as there's still a chance of  a "sort of double bottom" for "wave a", meaning another little leg up to level 4825 - or even 4856 - followed by a small leg down to the area 4774-4751.

This is due to the number of waves in the 1-hour chart that still don't add up. In fact, there are only 3 waves down, out of the expected set of 5.

TARGETS

likely: area 5009-5004
possible: area 5033-5036
maybe: area 5085-5104

SETUP
wait till the number of waves downward - in the 1-hour chart - is completed (5 waves).

TRIGGER
wait for the signal from the wave oscillator in the 4-hour chart.

SPI200 weekly chart: click to enlarge

SPI200 daily chart: click to enlarge

SPI200 4-hour chart: click to enlarge

SPI200 1-hour chart: click to enlarge

EURUSD, resuming the downtrend

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD - now at 1.3024 - retraced almost exactly 61.8% in 5 waves (check on your 15 min chart) and it is now supposed to resume the main downtrend to 1.2445 and lower, unless it is stopped by the major support at 1.2886.

SITUATION

If this analysis is correct, the EURUSD is performing a downtrend by means of  5 waves minimum - see the weekly chat below - where wave 1 and 2 are already on the paper.

Note the last vertical line in black on the right hand side: if the 36 weeks cycle is repeated, the downtrend should start this week. 

TARGETS 

daily chart
DOWN

likely: area 1.2752-1.2744
possible:  the area 1.2658-1.2688

weekly chart
DOWN

likely: the area 1.2457-1.2520
possible: 1.2328

Note the cycles in the weekly chart below. Also, check the targets (blue horizontal lines).


weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

EURUSD, Head & Shoulder

Hi Traders,

The Head & Shoulder is a reliable reversal pattern. If you master the Elliott Waves you can identify the right entry points and targets to enhance the profitability of your trading in such a market condition.

SITUATION

With the violation of this major support at 1.2886 the EURUSD - which now staged a H&S in the daily chart - will start the last major wave downward which might bring it to 1.19 and, under extreme conditions, to 1.12, target that I wouldn't dismiss at all.

If this analysis is correct, the resistance around the area 1.2899-1.2911 (or  maybe 1.2928-1.2935) should be a viable entry point for a juicy short, lasting weeks.  

TARGETS 

daily chart
DOWN

likely: area 1.2752-1.2744
possible:  the area 1.2658-1.2688

weekly chart
DOWN

likely: the area 1.2457-1.2520
possible: 1.2328

Note the cycles in the weekly chart below. Also, check the targets (blue horizontal lines).


weekly chart - click to enlarge

See the Head & Shoulder in the daily chart below

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

SPI200, a necessary ZigZag

Hi Traders

The SPI200 now at 4,985 took a big hit in the last few weeks. Although this happens all the time around the end of May, many ask whether this is the end of the uptrend.

THE REAL PICTURE

Check the weekly chart below. After the big slump occurred in Nov 07-Mar 09, the SPI200 performed major-wave-1 up and major-wave-2 downward (in bold grey, font 15). It's now trying to unfold major-wave-3 to the area 5,469-5,572.

But hold your horses.

weekly chart - click to enlarge

To be able to develop major-wave-3 the index needs a system of 5 waves, 3 of which are already on the paper (1-2-3 in blue). 

Now, every Elliott guy knows that the next wave (wave 4) could be a boring long term ZigZag (or 5-3-5) between the previous major top and the area at 4,569-4,459. 

This Zig-Zag will be followed by the resume of the last wave up (wave 5).

All the blue horizontal lines in the weekly chart above are possible targets for wave 4, a zig-zag made of 3 to 5 waves. 

TIMING

Wave 4 in the weekly chart above might end around September 13-16 followed by the start of the final uptrend (wave 5).


SHORT TERM SITUATION

In the daily chart below, this very first downtrend must be completed in 5 waves. We just started the small retracement-wave-4 to 5,004-5,009 an maybe higher (5,033-5,036).

Then wave 5 will resume downward to 4,888 and maybe 4,849.

Note: the target area marked by the blue horizontal lines. This is the target of the first impulse wave downward.



daily chart - click to enlarge

TARGETS

short pullback (wave 4 in the 4-hour chart) to

likely: area 5,004-5,009
possible: 5,033-5,036

then

short downtrend (wave 5 in the 4-hour chart) to 

likely: 4,907-4903
possible: 4,888-4,849

Target area even clearer (the targets) in the 4-hour chart below


4-hour chart - click to enlarge

GOLD, hold your horses

Hi Traders,

I heard everything and the opposite of everything about Gold. Let's out some of the nonsense.

• Is this downtrend over? Almost done, be patient.
• Will it be followed by a rally? There's now the chance of a rally.
• Is Gold going to start a major uptrend? Much depends of the ability of the commodity to break the area of resistance at 1,522-1,532.
• Most importantly, it depends by the number, shape, and magnitude of the developing Elliott Waves.

TARGETS

VERY SHORT TERM UPTREND (1-hour chart)

area 1,414.6-1,419.0 and

area 1,438.9-1,442.9

SHORT TERM DOWNTREND (4-hour chart)

area 1,335.7-1,308.6

MEDIUM TERM UPTREND  (daily chart)
area at 1,522-1,532.

SITUATION

GOLD, now at 1,492.27, is performing a minor rally to the areas 1,414.6-1,419.0 and, most likely, 1,438.9-1,442.9. This will be followed by a downtrend to the area 1,335.7-1,308.6. 

If this target is reached by means of 5 waves downwards - verifiable in either  the 4-hour and the 1-hour chart - there could be a new rally to the area at 1,522-1,532.

ENTRY FOR A POSSIBLE LONG

After getting to the area 1,335.7-1,308.6 in 5 waves - in the 4-hour or 1-hour chart - you need to make sure that Gold is bottoming out. Consequently:

• make sure that you have the right "set of waves"  in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.
• check that you have a reliable reversal candlestick in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.
• check that you have a confirmation from the wave oscillator.

ALL CHARTS BELOW

Gold weekly chart - click to enlarge

Gold daily chart - click to enlarge

Gold 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Gold 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

OIL "debacle"

Hi Traders,

The Oil, now at 93.50, got a big hit this week and is set to decline further.

TARGETS

likely: area 93.62-93.26,  92.21-91.82 and 89.97-89.77
possible: area 87.51-87.06
maybe: 83.80

ELLIOTT WAVE SETUP

In the weekly chart below the OIL performed an a-b-c-d and is now enfolding the last leg downwards (wave e).

If it this impulse downwards goes through the supports at $89 and $87 it has the potential to squeeze the commodity down to $80 and even below.
However, if it doesn't move below those supports, there's the chance of a reversal and even a breakout to the upside.

Note: the 2 grey channels:

• the large one has touched the boundaries 4 times meaning that there should be a breakout
• the inner one has touched 4 times as well. Once again, this means that there should be a breakout

As I said, it's not clear whether the breakout will be on the upside or the downside but I wouldn't worry for now.

weekly chart - click to enlarge

The daily chart below is a bit more precise with the targets, meaning that the first impulse downwards (out of 3) should end in the area 93.62-93.26. More possible supports in the areas 92.23-91.82 and 90.35-89.98

daily chart - click to enlarge

Even more interesting the 4-hour chart below with a substantial double top and some targets in the area 92.21-91.82 and 89.97-89.77

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

ENTRY POINT

If, in the 1-hour chart below, there's a little pullback from the area 93.50-93.35 to form a top in area 94.36-94.58, this would form "minor retracement wave 4" which would unfold most likely in 3 waves.

This  could be a further chances to get a good entry point for your short.

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

GBPUSD bouncing back

Hi Traders,

GBPUSD now at 1.5215.

After the top at 1.5605 - check the top at "2" in the daily chart below -  the Pound  resumed the main downtrend to point 1 (in black). It's now performing a temporary pullback.


DAILY CHART - click the chart to enlarge

SITUATION

After bottoming at 1.5157 the Pound should bounce back to 1.5298, possibly the area 1.5323-1.5328 and theoretically to the area 1.5360-1.5390.

This should be staged with a two-step-pattern upward, meaning 3 waves only. Then the major downtrend would resume.

SHORT TERM TARGETS:

(up) likely: 1.5298
(up) possibly the area 1.5323-1.5328
(up) theoretically the area 1.5360-1.5390

(down) likely: area 1.5073-1.5159
(down): likely: 1.4984

LONG TERM TARGETS (down):

(down) likely: 1.4777
(down) possible: 1.4552
(down) maybe: 1.4345

ENTRY POINT

Long Position: not worth it but if you want to get in, wait for area 1.5187

Short Position. Entry only:

• after reaching the target above mentioned
• the last wave of the two-step-pattern must be performed in 5 waves up
• wait for reversal candlestick at the top
• wait for a confirmation from the "wave oscillator" on your 4-hour chart (see below) before entering your short position.

For info on how to use the "wave oscillator" please check http://www.fxtutors.com.au/p/the-wave-oscillator.html

4-HOUR CHART - click the chart to enlarge

 4-HOUR CHART with the wave oscillator - click the chart to enlarge

 1-HOUR CHART - click the chart to enlarge

 1-HOUR CHART with the wave oscillator - click the chart to enlarge 

GBPUSD recharge

Hi Traders,

GBPUSD now at 1.5246.

After the top in the area 1.5600-1.5551 - check the top at "2" in the weekly chart below -  the Pound  resumed the main downtrend. It's now performing a temporary pullback.

SITUATION

Unless there's a breakout of the support at 1.5233 the GBPUSD should bounce back to the area 1.53241-.53622 where the major downtrend would resume.

SHORT TERM TARGETS:

(up) likely: area 1.5354-1.5362
(down) likely: area 1.5073-1.5159
(down): likely: 1.4984

LONG TERM TARGETS (down):

likely: 1.4777
possible: 1.4552
maybe: 1.4345

ENTRY POINT

Entry point for a short: possibly the area 1.5354-1.5362.

Please wait for a reversal candlestick and a confirmation from the "wave oscillator" - on your 4-hour/1-hour  chart - before entering your trade.

click the chart to enlarge

From the top at 52 - in the daily chart below - the GBPUSD started 5 major waves downwards. Wave 1 and 2 are already in place and we now witness the very first stage of wave 3 downward.

click the chart to enlarge

See the top of wave 2 at 52 in the 4-hour chart below.  From that top the pound performed 3 waves down and it's now bouncing back to build wave 4,  up to the area 1.53241-1.53622.

click the chart to enlarge

The 4-hour chart below shows the wave oscillator. Note the last 2 vertical lines which provided the entry/exit of your trade. The last red vertical line (to the right) for the entry followed by the last black vertical line for the exit.

click the chart to enlarge

1-hour chart below. Check the targets (blue horizontal lines)

click the chart to enlarge

 Wave oscillator plotted on a 1-hour chart below. Check the targets (blue horizontal lines)

click the chart to enlarge

AUDUSD, let's get on this pullback

Hi Traders,

Check this analysis down to the 15-min chart. There's the chance for a nice pullback of the AUDUSD.

As predicted a couple of weeks ago the AUDUSD, now at 0.9956, started a sharp downtrend and right now it's staging a rebound which is still part of the main downtrend.

Note: If it doesn't stop at 1.011 this pullback might rally further up to the area 1.014-1.0154 and maybe the area 1.0199-1.0222 

Then the downtrend should resume towards the area 0.9853-0.9837, then level 0.9412 and 0.9388. 

TECHNICAL SETUP

In the weekly chart below the Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in magenta) and it's now performing wave "e" downwards with 5 waves (starting from the top in 5d). 


PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

temporary pullback:

Likely: 1.0114
Possible: 1.156
Maybe: 1.0221

main downtrend:

Likely: area 0.9853-0.9837
Possible: 0.9412 and 0.9388
Maybe: 0.8952, 0.8877



weekly chart - click to enlarge

The Gann timing in the daily chart below suggests that our "wave 4" (the pullback) could top around May 17-20.


daily chart - click to enlarge

See also the targets (blue horizontal lines) of the pulback in the 4-hour chart below

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

See the imminent pullback confirmed by the Elliott Waves count in the 1-hour chart below: 5 waves down with the last one further broken down in 5 waves

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

See the bullish double bottom  in the 15 min chart below

15-min chart - click to enlarge

EURAUD, a risky matter

Hi Traders,

The EURAUD is now at 1.3000. The weekly chart below shows a nice downtrend followed by a clear "round formation".

When this occurs (long downtrend + round pattern) analysts usually project (one or twice) the distance between the low at 55 and the "neckline" to get some idea of the targets. The targets so calculated are: 1.2910, 1.4205 and 1.5487.

Well, plausible but this time there might be a catch. 

SETUP

Check the waves after the low at 55: they don't seem to have the strength to get to 1.42 (yet) and the whole group of waves looks more like a continuation pattern of the previous downtrend.

If this is correct, the EURAUD may not be able to go through the area 1.3160-1.3228 and, even in the event that it gets to 1.33 it should still retrace to 1.2150.

For the "magicians" of timing, note the 12 weeks cycle that should mark the top of wave 5 this week.

click the chart to enlarge

Note also the cycle of 126 trading days in the daily chart below. More importantly, starting from the low at c4, we might have already 4 waves in place with the 5th one on the way to the area 1.3160-1.3228.

click the chart to enlarge

TRIGGER

Keep an eye to your own 4-hour chart and especially your own 1-hour chart to be able to get the new top.

If this is followed by a nice reversal candlestick + a reversal pattern in the "wave oscillator" you have your entry point downward.

Finally, check the channel in the 4-hour chart below. The pair touched the channel 4 times already. This is usually an indication that the breakout is not too far away.


click the chart to enlarge

AUDUSD, staging a pullback

Hi Traders,

As predicted a couple of weeks ago the AUDUSD started a sharp downtrend and right now it's staging a rebound which is still part of the main downtrend.

Note: If it doesn't stop at 1.011 this pullback might rally further up to the area 1.014-1.0154 and maybe the area 1.0199-1.0222 

Then the downtrend should resume towards the area 0.9853-0.9837, then level 0.9412 and 0.9388. 

TECHNICAL SETUP

In the weekly chart below the Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in magenta) and it's now performing wave "e" downwards with 5 waves (starting from the top in 5d). 


PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

Likely: area 0.9853-0.9837
Possible: 0.9412 and 0.9388
Maybe: 0.8952, 0.8877



weekly chart - click to enlarge

The Gann timing in the daily chart below suggests that our "wave 4" (the pullback) could top around May 17-20.


daily chart - click to enlarge

See the imminent pullback confirmed by a nice "hammer" candlestick. See also the targets (blue horizontal lines) in the 4-hour chart below

4-hour chart - click to enlarge