USDJPY, Monday May 14, 2012

Hi Traders,

Sorry for disappearing for 2 weeks but I have been pretty busy.

Here is my analysis of the USDJPY. There's in incoming setup you don't want to miss out. But ... don't rush: you're plenty of time.

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In the Monthly chart below the USDJPY completed a 5-3-9 (according to my wave Elliott wave connotation). This means that it's now reversing up to a possible tartget of 94.000 and 98.500

This is confirmed by an engulfing pattern - at the very bottom right - followed by a new little uptrend marked 1 and 2 - in white.

It's hard to figure out the extension of this uptrend: it could be a 1-2-3 up (also named a retracement Xwave up) or even a 1-2-3-4-5 up (making this the very start of a new trend up).

So far we assume the first hypothesis for good, (only 1-2-3 up) given that this is all part of a huge down trend started in 1949. Hence, we expect only an Xwave up. In the best case scenario this could run up to 101.00.

In the worst case scenario, the downtrend will resume at 94.00.

The weekly chart below shows that the little 1-2 of the monthly chart is actually 1-2-3-4 within a channel (in turquoise).

Hence we expect the 5th wave up and then a little reverse down.

 This is confirmed by the daily chart below which also shows that:

• both retracement waves (wave 2 and wave 4 in turquoise) are structured in seven waves,
• wave 4 is not completed. The little wave 7 down (in red) is still missing,
• with the completion of wave 7 the channel will be touched 4 times,
• we're hoping for the chart to bounce back as soon as it touches the channel.

The 4hour chart  below  shows that the wave 6 is actually a retracement X-wave (only 1-2-3 up).

We expect a 3 wave down or a 5 wave down. These waves will be very short waves.

Note the stochastic in negative divergence signalling the incumbent - very last - downtrend.

 There's a surprise in the 1hour chart below:  the very last leg up of  wave 5 is missing.

Therefore, the X-wave of the 4hour chart is not completed yet.

It will probably unfold to the upside, touch level 80.200 and maybe reach the upper boundary of the small channel.

Then down to complete wave 7 of the daily chart. 

All the above confirmed by the 30min chart  below. See the chart touching the channel only 3 times (out of 4). See also the completion of only 4 waves up (in turquoise) out of 5.

Conclusion:

The USDJPY will rally a bit to complete the 5th wave in the 4 hour chart and then down to complete wave 7 of the daily chart. That will be your first entry point for our long position, provided that there will be a reversal candlestick

No reversal candlestick? No trade

EURUSD, Monday April 30, 2012

Hi Traders,

The Euro could be on the verge of a major rally.
Last week close: 1.32517.
Close targets: 1.34275 and 1.38450.
Entry: wait for a minor pulback in the 1hour-30min chart.
This could happen at the opening on Monday.

SITUATION

The monthly chart below shows the completion of 4 major waves up (see the numbers in turquoise). We also completed 3 (of 4) cycles of 3.5 years in January 2012.

Besides, wave 4 (down)  lasted  about 36-37 weeks.

Furthermore,  the chart also completed wave 1 and wave 2 (in white),  being the latter part of a set of 5 waves developing within the boundaries of the channel in turquoise.

It might be hard to believe but, if this wave count is really correct, the Euro will start a good run to 1.57500 and 1.70000.

Note: currently, the Euro closed at 1.32517, meaning that it's now sitting over a  the major supp/res (1.32500). Also note that all major supp-res appear to be set every 1250 pips.

 

The weekly chart below touched the torquoise channel 4 times and it's now close to the upper boundary of the  channel, heading for a breakout.

The immediate target is the DiNapoli Confluence (K) at 1.38450. Note wave 1 and 2 (in white).

Note the green line in the daily chart below. It belongs to the channel of the weekly chart above. The Euro must breakout both them to be able to reach the confluences (K)  at 1.34275 and 1.38450. 

Finally, note the 6 waves up in the 4hour chart. This is a wave count that I use when it's hard to label waves. Typically, this is a set  of  9 or even 13 waves up.

There could be a gap at the opening.   

  

Dow Jones 30, Sunday 22, 2012

Hi Traders,


It seems that the game is over with DJ30. There's only one way: down.
This could be one of the rare chances to jump on a long downtrend from the beginning.

Now: 12,985.5
Targets: 12,220 - 11.842 - 11,175 - 10,333 - 10,000 - 9,580
Fib nodes: 10,633 (38.2%) - 9,850 (50%)

Entry point: at the opening


SITUATION

The weekly chart below shows the completion of 5 waves up (light blue). Note the reversal candlestick (tweezer top) in the blue rectangle.

The DJ30 in the daily chart below showcases the last major wave up with a triple top at the very end (around 13,225). It also started the downtrend with wave 1 and 2 of a minor grade (in red). Note the first target a 12,220 (support).

The 4hour chart below confirms the triple top, plus the retracement waves 1 and 2 (in orange).

The 1hour chart below confirms tha wave 5 up (in turquoise) unfolded in 5 minor waves. Note the reversal evening doji star at the top of wave 5.  

 

In the 15min chart below shows the evidence that wave 2 unfolded in 5 waves up. The DJ30 is now sitting on the lower end of the channel, waiting for the breakout.  

SPI200, Saturday 21, 2012

Hi Traders,

I afraid that "that's it". The ASX has completed all possible waves up.

There's only one way: down.
This is confirmed by the analysis of the DJ30. See my post about it.

Entry point: at the opening.
Target: 4230 and 4010. There's a chance for 3800 and 3710 in the longer run. The latter confirmed by the Pinocchio candlestick in the weekly chart.

SITUATION

The monthly chart of the SPI200 below completed wave 4 by retracing 50% (in turquoise) of wave 3.

The weekly chart below shows the 4 major waves down in orange, all contained in the major channel in purple. Also, the chart touched the red channel 4 times and it's time for a breakout to the downside.

 

The daily chart below shows the 7 retracement waves up that completed the last leg up. They really were supposed to be 7 waves (according to the way to count waves) and they are equivalent to a 3 wave up (3-1-3).

At the top right of the chart you see 3 numbers: number 7 in white indicates the completion of 7 waves up; number 4 in orange shows that we completed the 4th wave down of a major downtrend started in November 2011; number 5 shows that the major wave 4 unfolded with 5 waves up.

Note the reversal spinning top at the end of wave 7.

 

 

The 4hour chart below shows that the last 5 wave up (wave 7) ended up with a double top and an reversal evening star. Also, the top resistance line in red confirms that the SPI200 didn't have enough momentum to move above 4393.

 

The 1hour chart below shows the very last 5 waves up, the double top and the reversal gravestone doji.

WTI, Saturday, April 21, 2012

Hi Traders,


I updated my post on Oil.
You still have he best entry point and set up on oil (WTI).
Please take a good look of the 4 hour chart.


Now: $104.04. It's now retracing slightly to $103.96 and could go even to $103.76.
Entry point: $103.76 or $103.96-104.00 if it doesn't retrace much.
Position: long.

Immediate target: 105.39.
Final target: up to $112.70-$114.70, then down to $95.00 and lower.

Note: there seems to be a strong resistance at $104.57.
Warning: if the Elliott wave count stops there or some other resistance ($108.18 and $109.72) it might not make it and it will reverse sharply.

SITUATION

Check the weekly chart below. The West Texas Intermediate is performing the very last wave up (wave 9). It's the very last leg up of major wave 5.

The chart touched the channel 5 times already. Consequently, after the last rally, it will breakout to the downside.

The Stochastic shows a divergence already for the long run, meaning that we're doing the last leg up and the down.

The daily chart below confirms the Elliott Wave count to 9. For some of you the count to 9 might sound wierd but it's equivalent to a count to 5.

The 4hour chart below shows that we started the uptrend already with 4 waves up. They are the first manifestation of wave 9 (weekly chart) that should unfold in about 13 - 21 waves

Finally, the 30min chart describes the A-B-C which formed the wave 4. Plus, see the candlestick reversal (hammer).

GBPJPY, Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Hi Traders,

The Yen seems to have issues against almost every currency, included the British Pound.
New trend up. Objectives: 134.800, 140.240, 145.480, 148.200.
Entry point: wait for the retracement to 38.2% or 50% in the 1hour chart.
Than entry only when you see a new bullish reversal candlestick.

DESCRIPTION

In the monthly chart below it's clear that we completed the very last 5 waves down plus a double bottom (near number 5).

This means that the major downtrend is over and it just reversed with a new rally up.

Note the vertical lines: it took precisely 11 years (132month) from low to low. We're likely to see something significant at the completion of the 144 month from September 2001 (12 years). 

The weekly chart below shows an imminent breakout on the upside given the 5 contact points of the blue channel. The number 5 (bottom right in orange) signals the end of the major trend down and the beginning of a new major rally.

Wave 2 unfolded in the daily chart below by means of 5 waves down, just on the 38.2% retracement line. It's now on the 23.6% line. The channel was touched 4 times and we expect a breakout on the upside.

The 4hour chart below shows the completion of the retracement wave 2 (in turquoise), given the Elliott Wave count over the minor waves. See also the 5 waves up. 

Finally the 1hour chart below shows that the chart could try a small leap up before starting the retracement down that should stop around level 128.700 (38.2%) or 128.400 (50%).

USDJPY, Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Hi Traders,

Nice setup for a long position on USDJPY. It could be the rare chance to get a very long trend from the beginning.

If your target is the long term and you are not in already, wait for the completion of 5 waves up and a retracement down before getting in.

You might not know how to handle the Elliott Wave count. If you don't feel confident enough just ring me up on Skype: "mariodconti"

Targets: 85.540 and 88.130 but the closest targets should be 80.730, 81.200, 81.850. The final target could be up to 98.500, 101.350 with a chance of 103.460 and 105.470.


SITUATION


I've already analysed this currency few weeks ago and I didn't change a thing.
Basically, we completed a cycle of 120 month at the beginning of February: a major top in Feb 2002 followed by a major low on Feb 2012).
We are now bouncing back after completing a 5-X-5-X-5 (or 5-3-5-3-5). In the monthly chart below I marked 9 waves down = 5-3-5

As you see in weekly chart below we started impulse wave 1-2-3 and 4 and we're now  started wave 5 that will be followed by and a series of retracement waves

The daily chart below shows that the retracement of wave 4 (in turquoise) stopped exacly on the 50%  line (in blue)

The 4hour chart below rings some bells as the chart touched the channel 4 times (yellow triangles). At this point in time we should have a breakout, hopefully on the upside.  The Elliott count after wave 5 (in turquoise) is a 3-X-3-X-5.

In the 30min chart below we had 9 waves down and a sort of triple bottom. The chart also performed a breakout of both channels.

EURJPY, Monday 16 April, 2012

Hi Traders,

There's an interesting Set Up in the cross Euro / Yen. As soon as the small retracement  is complete - down to 104.25 or even 102.54 -  you  may want to enter your long position. But careful: if the chart doesn't break the resistance at 111.50 it might reverse down again.

Targets: 111.50 and 118.00

Description

The monthly chart below shows 3 channels: the major channel is in red and it's almost horizontal. Note the blue triangles:  the chart  touched the channel 5 times in the past and it's now ready for a major breakout.

We also have another channel in orange. The yellow triangles show that the channel was touched 4 times and then we had a breakout (wave 4 in red).

Finally, the third channel in Magenta shows only 3 contact points. Consequently, we need one more contact with  the boundary of the magenta channel before going through it.

The weekly chart below show that the euro completed a typical retracement wave down named  5-X-5-X-5 (also named 5-3-5-3-5). This wave started from the "mid way pivot point" of the rounding top. The chart touched the blue channel 4 times before performing a very little breakout on the downside.

Gann used to call this kind of breakout a "throw over". This usually happens when the trend reverses. Note the reversal "morning star" at the bottom and also note that we reached the 300% target of the rounding top.

Check also the magenta channel with 4 contact points. It's ready for a breakout

The daily chart below shows that the Euro just completed 5 major waves down and started 5 waves up followed by some retracement waves down. It  performed a double bottom and a "morning doji star" between wave 4 and 5 

We also just started a new uptrend (wave 1 and 2 in turquoise) after the small breakout of the blue channel (on the downside) and 4 contact points (see the yellow triangles for the contact points).

In this chart, the retracement wave 2 will be completed at level 104.25 yen per euro but it can go down to 102.54. Then up to start wave 3.

The 4 hour chart below  shows wave 2 unfolding nicely in a channel after a triple top. In this case too, it touches the orange channel 4 times (see triangles). At the completion of the last wave down there should be a breakout. hopefully, on the upside

The 1 hour chart below shows the 9 or more waves down in formation. Just wait for them to complete and aldo wait also for the appropriate reversal candlestick  before taking your position.

EURUSD, Thursday, April 12, 2012

Euro monhly chart below started wave C down to 1.260-1.245. Theoretically this should be a 5 waves down.  Stochastic on the way down again.

Note the yellow arrows: next June will mark 11 years since the major low in June 2001. Do we have to wait till June 2013 to complete 144 month and see a turning point? (Gann-Fibonacci number).

White globes in the weekly chart below warn that we touched the channel 5 times. This means that: 1) this wave could be short, 2) it could take longer then usual, 3) the inclination could be mild, 4) there will be a breakout and the chart will leave the channel. The stochastic confirms the downtrend.

The daily chart below shows a double top, the whole patttern looks similar to a Head and Shoulder and wave 2 (turquoise color) is completed. All confirmations that the first target should be 1.26930.

The 5 wave retracement up in the 4hour chart below almost touched the 38% around 1.316. Stochastic in bearish divergence

AUDUSD, Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Big Apologies. I thing I got the wrong wave count about the Aussie.

The new wave count in the monthly chart below shows that we completed 5 waves up and also the retracement waves A and B.

This goes a bit against the rules as major wave 4 is well into the territory of major wave 1.

The new long term target is around 0.86875 and 0.79491 that coincides with the DiNapoli Confluences (K).

This is consistent with the bleak view of the IMF (Internation Monetary Fund) about the Commodity price for the next decade. The Reserve Bank's Commodity Price Index also peaked in August, and was down by almost 10 per cent in March.

Also, there is the chance that the whole Major Wave Cycle (1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C) will last exactly 144 month (12 years), from April 2001 to the end of March 2013.

The weekly chart below shows that we started wave C - down - over 6 weeks ago with a possible target around 0.91775. Keep an eye on level 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%

In the daily chart below the first leg of Wave C is structured in a  common a-b-c-d-e-X-a-b-c-d-e, also known as the 5-3-5 retracement wave. If this wave is correct it will be followed by a rally to level 38.2% (1.04685) or higher. 

See the "hammer" in  the 4hour chart below as it often occurs at the end of "wave e". It's a reversal pattern up and it shows the beginning of a temporary pullback.

The 4 yellow triangles are a warning that we touched the bounderies of the blue channel 4 times and there is a chance of breakout.

The hammer is confirmed by another reversal up: the "engulfing pattern" of the 1hour chart below.

Finally the 15min chart below shows 9 waves up, which is equivalent to a 5 wave pattern up. It's the beginning of the pulback described in the daily chart.

SPI200, April 10, 2012

Is the SPI200 at the end of the line?

If the wave count is correct in the weekly chart below, wave 5 might be over. Usually, a breakout occurs after 4 contact points of the channel boundaries. Will it be on the downside?

This is confirmed by the 4H chart below that shows  4 contact points of another channel: the one enveloping the first wave down.  Note that a 9 wave pattern is equal to a 5 wave pattern.

Usually there is a little pull back before starting the new downtrend and also a breakout of the channel.  The targets for the pullback are at 4322 (38%), 4335 (50%) and 4348 (61.8%). All of them could be entry points.

Any value above could imply that the whole Elliott Wave count is wrong.

The 1H chart below ahows that the pull back could stop also at 4309-4316. Finally, to limit the risk, you may want to enter at the breakout of the strong support at 4295