S&P500 diving soon?

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S&P500 - ANALYSIS

Hi Traders,


The S&P500 appears to be really close to the end of the line and it might stage the very last rally to the area 2007-2073 before reversing a 5 years uptrend.

Please note that, at this stage, if anyone screams "abandon ship!" some high frequency trading systems might trigger a havoc.

Hence, the level of risk is very high and might be wise staying at the window till a genuine reversal takes place.



ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the end of major wave 3. Note that some Elliott traders think that we it's the end of major wave 5.

Whatever it is, it doesn't make much difference. We still expect a reversal pattern.

Note in the monthly chart that unusual a-b-c in red. I labelled it that way for 2 reasons:

• in the Russel 2000 Index that pattern is a real a-b-c "Flat"
• each leg is made of 3 or 7 waves (no 5 leg waves), a clear indication of a "Flat" retracement pattern.

BTW, the 4-hour chart and the 1-hour chart display an extension in wave 5 and an exhaustion gap. All signs of impending end of the 5 years uptrend.

Finally, note the 45 degrees Gann line in the monthly chart. 

DISCREPANCY:

Both the Gann line in the monthly chart and the 36 weeks vertical line in the weekly chart indicate the mid of November for the end of the uptrend.

Consequently, they might be a "Truncation", ie. an irregular a-b-c Flat where "b" is higher than the orthodox top.  We'll see. 

TARGETS:

first up to 2007-2039 or even 2073 
then down to
likely: 1892-1888
possibly:1732 




Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

GOLD: slowly getting to target

Hi Traders,

Gold has been trending down since September 2011. Is there a chance of hitting an absolute minimum in the upcoming months? Are we on the verge of  new major uptrend?

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GOLD - ANALYSIS

As I said in my previous newsletters, after the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) on May 19, the message from the 21 European Central Banks is very clear: European gold sales are almost over.

I also said that this is supposed to happen only well after September 27, 2014 when the fourth CBGA is going to be enforced. Note that the FED quantitative easing is supposed to end in October 2014 as well. This is likely to bring weakness to both Stocks & Commodities and strengthen the USD for a short time.


CONCLUSION

Gold (now at $1,304) might display the last brave "throw over" to $1348-52 to complete the a-b-c-d-e triangle configuration (see weekly chart) but this would soon be followed by the last leg down to the area 1164-54 (or lower) in 5 smaller waves to establish a primary low.

There's an equal probability for this low to be established a bit further down to $1089 or even to the area at $1043-$1032. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to a forecast of $1050 as a primary low.

This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable.
If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow up.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Note the weekly chart: Gold must touch the upper boundary of the triangle before resuming the last wave down. See the 4-hour chart: after wave 2 down (in blue) there should be another wave up (only) to $1348-52.

TARGETS:

first up to 1348-52
then down to
likely: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)




Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Four-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD plunging

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.9368) resumed its downtrend after the last rebound to 0.9454, as predicted. Initial targets: 0.9331-0.9324 and 0.9220-0.9198

TARGETS:

likely: 0.9331-0.9324
possibly: 0.9220-0.9198
maybe: 0.9083

ELLIOTT WAVES

As displayed in the weekly chart the AUDUSD is unfolding the 5th wave to complete wave "e". This wave could reach the area 0.8419-0.8303 and lower.

BEST ENTRY

Around 0.9375-78 if it bounces back a bit.


monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

USDJPY, the new jump

Hi Traders,

The USD JPY started a new uptrend to 105.43-105.70 and 110.68-111.52

TARGETS

likely: 105.43-105.70 and 107.00
possibly: 110.68-111.52
maybe: 113.63-115.14

ELLIOTT WAVES

In the weekly chart, daily chart and 4-hour chart the YEN completed the last triangle and just started the 5th-of-the-5th-of-the-5th, ie: the new uptrend.

See the 4-hour chart where the last wave down display 5 waves down and a final reversal pattern.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

AUDUSD on a support

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ANALYSIS

The AUDUSD (now at 0.9362) topped between the 2 targets that I indicated in the daily chart on April 9. It is now sitting on a major support (see weekly chart). After a minor bounce back to the area 0.9386-89 (see 1-hour chart) it should resume the downtrend to 0.90834 as a start.

TARGETS

likely: 0.9220-0.9198
possibly: 0.90834 and 0.8846-0.8809 (major Fibo cluster)
maybe: 0.8578-0.8509 and 0.8160-0.8067

ELLIOTT WAVES

This very last leg might bottom down at 0.8578-0.8509 to complete the 5 waves configuration a-b-c-d-e (see weekly chart). This area marks the 50% retracement between the low at 0.6003 and the high at 1.1085.

However, there's another major Fibonacci cluster (38% + 50%) at 0.7942-0.7936, (see the thick blue line in the weekly chart) and a bunch of Fibo clusters (green lines) in the monthly chart, the primary of which is sitting right at 0.8000-0.8040. These target could be the possible objective as well.





monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

OIL last jump

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ANALYSIS

WTI OIL (now at 104.08) might re-visit the support area at 103.94-55 before heading to 110.86-111 and 114.80 (probably after Independence Day).


TARGETS

first down to the area at 103.94-55
then
likely: 110.86-111.00
possibly: 114.80
maybe: 121.58-122.00

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows that the OIL has almost completed waves 1-2-3-4 (in black). It will be ready to start minor wave 5 up which has room and strenght to get up to $110.86-111 and 114.80.


NOTE

This would complete the whole set of waves up - both of a major and minor degree - setting the stage for a new major downturn.

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave Oscillator on a daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

Gold topping soon?

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GOLD - ANALYSIS

As I said in my last newsletter about Gold (now at 1326.83), after the CBCA agreement in May, the message from the 20 major banks is very clear: European gold sales are over.

I also said that this is supposed to happen only around September 2014 when the fourth GBCA is going to be enforced.

Meanwhile, Gold should move up the area 1336-48 and then reverse down to the area 1164-54 (or lower) in 5 smaller waves to establish a primary low.

Equal probability for the other targets further down at 1089 and around the area at 1043-1032.

After all of this, it should resume the major trend up.


ELLIOTT WAVES

Note that I came up with a better wave configuration in the weekly chart. However, this didn't change targets and perspectives. Gold must complete the last wave down before resuming the major uptrend.

See the 4-hour chart: wave 1 down is completed. Wave 2 up is almost completed. The green horizontal lines in the daily chart represent the immediate targets of wave 2. After reaching the target, wave 3 should unfold downwards. 



TARGETS:
first to 1346-1348
then
likely: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)





Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

WTI OIL TO 122 ?

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ANALYSIS
WTI OIL (now at 107.34) is displaying the predicted breakout and it's heading to 110.86-111 and 114.80.


TARGETS

likely: 110.86-111.00
possibly: 114.80
maybe: 121.58-122.00

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows that the OIL has completed waves 1-2 and it's unfolding wave 3 right now.

In the weekly chart,  shows that major wave 5 (in blue, not displayed) has room and strenght to get to $147.5 and above.

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave Oscillator on a daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge