SPI200 heading south

Hi Traders,

The SPI200, now at 5211, is heading to 5000 and much lower. We're expecting a small rebound to 5238 when it touches the support around 5190.

Level 5238 could be a good entry point.

TARGETS

likely: 5065-5040
possibly: 4942
maybe: 4860

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the SPI200 completed waves 1,2 and 3 and it's now developing wave 4 with a zigzag or a flat lasting several months.

The operational range of this zigzag or flat should be between 5460 and 4660 or lower.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 1-hour chart, click to enlarge

EURUSD, according to plan

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD, now a 1.3550, did exactly as predicted and seems to be heading to 1.30.

TARGETS

likely: 1.3470-1.3451
possibly: 1.3318-1.3290
maybe: 1.3175-1.3159

ELLIOTT WAVES

After a gigantic a-b-c-d the EURUSD performed 5 waves down (wave 1 in Magenta in the weekly chart) and a retracement up with two-step pattern (wave 2 in Magenta in the weekly chart).

Theoretically, this should be followed by 5 waves down well below 1.2970-80, if the Euro breaks this important support.


NOTE

The Euro might attempt to rally to 1.3597 before resuming the downtrend.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 1-hour chart, click to enlarge

AUDUSD, rebound

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8762) has almost reached the target around 0.8750. This should be followed by a short rally to 0.8864-0.8900 before resuming the downtrend to 0.8067-0.8047.

If the pattern that is unfolding is an "Expanded Flat" the new rally could be more substantial. See the note below.  


TARGETS

first: 0.8864-0.8900

then:

likely: 0.8613
possibly: 0.8427
maybe: 0.8067-0.8047

ELLIOTT WAVES

After point "d", the AUDUSD seems to be staging a very long "wave e" (weekly chart). This can either be in 3 or 5 waves

NOTE:

There's a chance that we are witnessing an "Expanded Flat" in the daily chart. 

If this is the case, point "2" (in magenta) should be renamed "a" followed by "b" around 0.8750 and "c" around 0.9148-0.9166.

Hence, the temporary rally could take the pair to 0.9148-0.9166 before resuming the downtrend.


WAVE OSCILLATOR

Enter your trade only when you have a valid cross of the 2 inside lines in the daily or 4-hour charts.

Remember to place your "trailing stop" according to the "instructions" from the wave oscillator.





monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

GOLD on target

Hi Traders,

GOLD - now at 1248 - is on its way to 1408-1411.


ELLIOTT WAVES:

The daily chart shows that intermediate wave 3 (up) is on its way. The 4-hour chart displays Minor wave 1 and 2. Minor wave 3 should take it to 1307.


TARGETS:

likely: 1307 and 1335
possibly: 1408-1411
maybe: area 1469-1474

NOTE:

The weekly charts displays a further target in the area 1525-1536. At present,  it's still a feasible target.

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

EURUSD, showdown

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD, now a 1.3606, reached the main descending trend line from below (weekly chart) with a two-step pattern and a double top.

After a small rally to 1.3678-1.3720 it should resume the downtrend to 1.3182 and below.

TARGETS

first: 1.3666-1.3720
then
likely: 1.3458-1.3433
possibly: 1.3356-1.3320
maybe: 1.3182

ELLIOTT WAVES

After a gigantic a-b-c-d the EURUSD performed 5 waves down (wave 1 in the weekly chart) and a retracement up with two-step pattern (wave 2 in the weekly chart).

Theoretically, this should be followed by 5 waves down well below 1.3182 if the Euro breaks this important support.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 1-hour chart, click to enlarge

USDJPY, zig-zag correction

Hi Traders,

USDJPY

The USDJPY, now at 104.00, made a new top at 104.63 which should be followed by a Zig-Zag correction in 3-5 swings, the last one down to 101.47 and/or 100.60.


TARGETS

likely: 102.77-102.73
possibly: 101.60-101.55
maybe: 100.60-99.96


ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays 3 impulse waves up which should be followed by a corrective zig-zag in 3-5 waves to form wave 4.

The 4-hour chart shows the completion of wave 3 which was performed in 5 waves of a minor degree.



NOTE

I believe that trading during these holidays is not really worth it due to lack of volume. Real trading should resume from Jan 6th.

Also, wait for an entry signal from the wave oscillator in the daily/4-hour chart before taking any position. The signal is almost there.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD, bouncing back

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8915) seems to be ready for a temporary rally to 0.9220 or higher.

TARGETS

likely: 0.9195-0.9220
possibly: 0.9343-0.9389
maybe: 0.9400

ELLIOTT WAVES

The pair has completed 5 waves down in each time frame (daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts). If this is true, the rule of "multiple five in multiple timeframes" is respected and we expect a reversal.

This is confirmed by the channels being touched 4 times in the daily chart and 4-hour charts.

HOWEVER

The "reversal candlestick" in the 4-hour chart is not very convincing and the market might try to stop you out before shooting up.


WAVE OSCILLATOR

Hence, enter your trade only when you have a valid cross of the 2 black lines in the daily or 4-hour charts.

Remember to place your "trailing stop" according to the "instructions" from the wave oscillator. 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge