EURUSD dive

Hi Traders,

Exceptional economic data in US and the perspective of the QE3 tampering  (not to mention the Syria matter) has revved up the US dollar against all major currencies and commodities.

If the Euro dives through the area 1.3205-1.3172 it might have a long way to go, as announced few times in the last month.

However, I believe that Mr. Mario Draghi and Mrs Christine Lagarde might sell some of the Euro reserves to keep the currency from falling too quickly, and this include the AUD and the SGD.

Meaning: they would short AUDUSD (target: 0.8578-0.8510) and USDSGD (target: 1.2576-1.2557) to long EURUSD. Hence keep an eye on them.

TARGETS

likely: area1.3205-1.3172

possibly: 1.3045-1.3021

maybe: area 1.2777-1.2742

ELLIOTT WAVES

The Euro stared "wave e" (daily chart) that should take it to 1.27 or lower.

ENTRY

Theoretically, I might bounce back to 1.3266 or even to the area 1.3276-1.3280. One of them could be your ideal entry point (check the 1-hour chart).

Always wait for the confirmation of the "wave oscillator" in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.

WARNING

The volatility, the volume and the open interest (futures & options) are supposed to rise, augmenting the risk of being stopped out. Hence, choose carefully your entry point.


monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour  chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDJPY, weak try

Hi Traders,

USDJPY doesn't convince me as it doesn't seem to have the strenght to break the triangle's upper line (displayed in the daily chart)

If it doesn't breakout above 99.27, it would start a new downtrend to the area 92.66-91.60

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays 5 waves up (starting from bottom left) followed by "wave a" and "wave b" (top right). We now started "wave c" which it will be made of 5 legs down. Waves 1 & 2 (out of 5) are already in place. Wave 3 (downwards) should start soon.

ENTRY

None of the wave oscillators shows any clear signal yet, meaning that we have no confirmation yet and the direction is not clear yet. Hence, wait for a clear confirmation

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDSGD, double top

Hi Traders,

USDSGD (now at 1.2787) displays a double top in the daily chart and the whole set of 5 Elliott Waves upwards seem to be completed. Although there could be a modest rally to 1.2820, the pair seems to be ready for a good downtrend .

TARGETS

likely: area  1.2743-1.2707
possibly: 1.2636-1.2630
maybe: 1.2576-1.2557

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows a huge triangle and a breakout to the upside which will be followed by a pullback. If it's correct that the whole set of 5 Elliott Waves upward is completed, this should lead irrevocably to a new downtrend.

Both the double top and the reversal candlestick on point 55 (top right) of the daily chart seem to support this scenario.

ENTRY

Wait for the pullback to 1.2820 and a confirmation of the Wave Oscillator in  the 4-hour chart (it's not there yet) before getting in.

NOTE:

If the pair rallies above 1.2869, the whole Wave configuration needs to be re-assessed. 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

GBPUSD, showdown

Hi Traders,

The pound (now at 1.5569) started a new downtrend.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.5500-1.5490
possibly: area 1.5434-1.5412
maybe: area 1.5342-1.5326
also: area 1.5220-1.5197

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays and a-b-c-d which is being followed by "wave e". The latter might take  the Pound to the area 1.47-1.43.

ENTRY POINT

The likely pullback should be risible. You may want to entry immediately 

NOTE

The Pound is heavily manipulated by the BOE and it's traded by expert traders on the London floor. Hence, be careful.


monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

EURUSD, double top

Hi Traders,

Once again, the EURUSD (now at 1.3342) went through the resistance at 1.3450 and retreated, forming a double top (weekly chart) and starting a new downtrend.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.3294-1.3300
possibly: area 1.3208-1.3185
maybe: 1.3102

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and daily charts show that "wave d" should be followed by "wave e" downwards. In the daily chart this is confirmed by an "harami" candlestick pattern and in the 4-hour chart but a much more deadly "breakaway pattern" followed by 5 red candles.

ENTRY

These 5 red candles are usually the prelude to a small rally. The Wave Oscillator shows already some sign of it. Hence, wait for this rebound before entering your trend. Minimum rebound: area 1.3353-1.3355 but it could be a bit higher.

RUMORS

Some traders say that, after the BRICS + Australian + Japanese currencies (and many other more) lost value against $US, it  is just a matter of time for the Euro to follow, arguing that money is now moving back to USA.

It this occurs, the Euro might dive to 1.24, 1.19 and even 1.12. Let's see how it goes.




monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour  chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD, double top

Hi Traders,

A double top (see daily chart) started a new downtrend of the AUDUSD (now at 0.9068) that should take it to 0.8850 as a minimum and possibly to the area 0.8578-0.8510.

TARGETS

likely: area 0.8847-0.8874
possibly: area 0.8578-0.8510
maybe: area 0.8073-0.8003

ELLIOTT WAVES

The starting point of this new downtrend is point 4 (bottom right) in our daily chart. This also shows that this is the last leg down (wave 5) of a minor grade (4-hour chart).

ENTRY POINT

Wait for the pair to get back up to the area 0.9081-0.9099 before entering the trade downwards. If you are not in already, check the wave oscillator in the 1-hour chart before taking your position.




monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

OIL, good entry

Hi Traders,

The WTI OIL (now at 106.85) needs a temporary pull back and this might be the starting point of 5 nice waves downwards.

TARGETS

likely: 105.45-105.34 and 103.36-103.73
possible: 101.75-102.05
maybe: 100.7

ELLIOTT WAVES

As the monthly and weekly chart displays, we had a breakout of the upper trend line which is usually followed by a pullback. This rebound might take oil down to 100.70 with a set of 5 waves.

NOTE:

If the pullback stops around 103-105 this would imply a different configuration of Elliott Waves. So, be careful.

monthly chart, click to enlarge

 weekly chart, click to enlarge

daily chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 1-hour chart, click to enlarge