Time Analysis of S&P500, Tuesday May 01, 2013

Hi Traders,

Working on the timing side with Gann and Elliott together takes quite a bit of time but the outcome is amazing!

According to W.D.Gann a trend is "balanced out" when moving along a 45 degrees line, meaning that a "time unit" (a day) must be equal to a "price unit".

Alright. A time unit is "one day" but ... how many index points is a price unit in the S&P500?

I calculated (I might be wrong) that every 36 TRADING days the S&P500 should climb 118.16 points to be on a 45 degree line, meaning 3.2822 points/day which is our "price unit".

Now, check the daily chart below as I found out that, from early June 2012, the S&P500 futures recorded highs and lows every 36 days with a Swiss watch precision!

Furthermore, by combining Elliott Waves and Gann Timing you get a projection of a "possible" calendar day for the next incoming High/Low which should comes to Friday May 24 or Monday May 27, US East Coast Standard Time (a day ahead for Australia).

NOTE: I said High/Low, meaning that can be either one. I can only specify the calendar date.

Finally, take all this with a "pinch of salt" and, please, give me some feedback, included any negative "honest/competent" opinion.

PS: I've repeated this analysis with the SPI200: the new High/Low comes a trading day later.

click to enlarge

For the SPI200 below calculations where a bit more complicated but with the same similar (timing) Swiss precision and outcome, so I won't comment any further.

You may want to contact me for a quick chat. In meantime, check the daily chart below and the weekly chart further down which confirms the same calendar date. 

 click to enlarge

Below the weekly chart of the SPI200

 click to enlarge

AUDUSD collapsing? Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Hi Traders,

Is the AUDUSD on the verge of starting a new downtrend?  If this analysis is correct  the Aussie has completed an "a-b-c-d" and it's ready for wave "e" downwards.

But this time there's something that worries me: the downtrend could be quite swift and the amplitude of the "depreciation" could be considerable and protracted for quite sometimes.

FUNDAMENTALS

The Budget Deficit is out of control
The government is going to increase taxes which in turn will reduce the  economy expansion
The RBA might lower its cash interest rate.
The Rating Agencies might decide to downgrade the government debt.
China might slow down further

TECHNICAL SETUP

The present rally could soon end by approaching the area of resistance at 1.0351-1.0366. Then, a new downtrend might follow

PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 0.9788, 0.9386, 0.8516 and 0.8000


SITUATION

The Aussie at 1.0336 is now below the bunch of "displaced" moving averages (see weekly chart below) sitting together within a very narrow range. This usually happens just before the tempest.



click to enlarge

The  daily chart below shows a reversal candlestick in 5D and an unusual spike in the "volume of trades". Note: Even in case the currency pair reaches 1.040-1.0414 it will still be in bearish territory.


click to enlarge

The inverted Head & Shoulder in the 4-hour chart below may be stopped by the area of resistance at 1.0351-1.0366 or at 1.0385.


click to enlarge

See the 1-2-3 below (two-step pattern) in the 1-hour chart that could potentially stop the pair and point "3" (in blue).

Note the reversal engulfing pattern at point "3" and the "wave oscillator" alerting to exit the long position (black vertical line)


click to enlarge

USDJPY, Monday, April 29, 2013

Hi Traders,

Markets never stops to surprising me. I thought the USDJPY was going to hit 101.3 but it didn't. If what I see is a real double top, it's time for a downtrend.

SITUATION

USDJPY seems to have completed 5 waves up at 99.944 and needs to recharge for sometimes by implementing a downtrend with 3-5 major waves down. See the 5 waves up in the weekly chart below.

A double top in the daily charts is now casting dark clouds on the currency pair as in the daily chart below.

See the double top in 4-hour chart below and targets/supports in the area 97.22-97.14 and 96.32-96.19

Now check the entry/exit points of the "wave oscillator" in the same 4-hour chart: 

• the blue lines are the entry points for a long
• the red lines are the entry points for a short
• the black vertical lines are exit point for both trades

See the last red line (right end) showing the short? There's no exit yet.  

EURGBP, Monday April 29, 2013

Hi Traders

SITUATION of EURGBP:

Although the currency pair started now a minor rally to a possible target in the area 0.8463-08473, the down trend will then resume to the area 0.8377-0.8366 and maybe 0.8275-0.8259

SETUP

We  need 5 major waves down to take the pound to 0.7765 in the monthly chart below. 4 of them are in place already (in magenta) and the 5th one is on its way to unfold from point 4 downward. 

click to enlarge

The weekly chart below shows the 4 waves (in magenta) and the start of the last major wave down (wave 5) with a nice 1-2 (in black)


click to enlarge

See the targets in the area 0.8377-0.8366 and 0.8275-0.8259 in the daily chart below 

click to enlarge

And so the target at 0.8473-0.8463 in 4-hour chart below. Note that this minor rally enfolding now is due to the development of minor wave 4 up. See the waves 1-2-3 in black

click to enlarge

Finally, see the "Wave Oscillator" in the 1-hour chart below with faded candles to better show the dynamics of the oscillator which shows a double bottom and the 2 black lines getting together to indicate the start of the new rally.


click to enlarge 

GOLD, Tuesday April 23, 2013

Hi Traders,

Gold - at 1,415 right now - might be set for another dive

TARGET: 1372, the area 1333-1321 and possibly 1267

SETUP: in the daily chart below Gold is performing wave 7 downward out of 9. Wave 7 is unfolding, in turn, in 5 waves, 4 of them already in place. The last one (downward) is starting right now. See below wave 4 (in green)

  

The start of the new downtrend is confirmed by the bearish candlestick - see just under 3 (in green) and 4(in black), in the 4-hours chart below -  appearing just after wave 4 (in black): this a typical reversal called "breakway" pattern.

Finally, see the 1-hour chart below, which shows the continuation pattern within the channel which usually develops in 3 waves up (only).

ENTRY: the red lines of the "wave oscillator" - in the 1-hour chart - converged enough to indicate a good entry for a short. If you are not in already, there should be another chance for a short around 1416-17 in the 15min chart

USDJPY, Thursday Apr 11, 2013

Hi Traders,

The Japanese Yen is heading to the area 101.3/101.65 and beyond, as I indicated so many times in my posts since January 2012.

A BIT OF HISTORY

Not many traders know that the USDJPY rate was fixed at ¥360 in 1949. Since then it climbed relentlessly to ¥75 in Feb 2012.

It showed some weakness only in case of OIL Shock (and subsequent Trade Deficit) and when the Asset Price Bubble burst, as it occurred in February 2002, when it reached the low at ¥134.8.

That is to say that that low at ¥134.8 could be once again a possible target.
 
Other Fib Nodes: ¥105.39, 112.12, 118.4, 123.2, 128.7, 134.8
 
SITUATION
 
Although there's no sign of trend reversal or weakness yet, the ¥ could take a break after reaching ¥101.3/65 or higher and start a large ABC retracement within the weekly chart.
 
SET UP
 
The Elliott Waves in the 4 hour chart show the completion of 3 waves up (out of 5). The subsequent wave 4 should retrace a bit downwards (maybe to ¥98.6). Then Wave 5 should get the currency to ¥101.3/65.
 
ENTRY POINT
 
If this happens, wave 4 should unfold with an ABC or even an ABCDE down, in the 1 hour chart. This low could be a good entry point. 

Assuming that you want to take advantage of the last rally to 101.3/65 or higher, this Entry Point for your long position should be identified through your 15 min and 5 min charts.

The low will show up at the  end of an ABC or ABCDE and should be confirmed by a strong reversal candlestick accompanied by the sign of a trend reversal in the Wave Oscillator (similar to Bollinger Bands).

If you don't know how to use the very new Wave Oscillator feel free to ask.
 
Below the charts

 

Monthly chart: click to enlarge

 

 

 

 

Weekly chart: click to enlarge

 

 

 

 

Daily chart: click to enlarge

 

 

 

 

4-hour chart: click to enlarge

 

 

 

 

 1-hour chart: click to enlarge 

 

Major Indices, Wednesday April 10, 2013

Hi Traders,

Before starting:

• I suspended our Free Webinars for a while
• Our Newsletter will carry on as usual
• I'm looking for a new challenge and business to associate with: if  anyone has a business proposition please write at info(at)fxtutors.com.au or call me at +61 405 233 578.

SETUP:

This is a comparison between 6 Stock Indices by using their Daily Charts.

SITUATION:

There's usually some correlation between indices but this time this relationship seem to be broken.

Although each chart shows that we're completing MAJOR wave 5 (upward) it's interesting to notice that:

• The European Indices (CAC40, DAX30 and FT100) seem to have completed 4 MINOR waves up (our of 5) and they're starting the last one up.
• The US Index DJ30 seems have completed only 3 minor waves up it might start minor wave 4 (down).
• The US Index S&P500 seem have completed 4 minor waves up and it's almost done with minor wave 5 up as well
• The Australian SPI200 seems to have completed all minor and major 5 waves up already. It has also completed retracement wave A (downward) and it's staging the new retracement wave B upward.

 CONCLUSION:

 If we take this thesis for good:

• In Europe the indices might try to make a double top or a new top
• The S&P500 is almost at the top
• The SPI 200 is doing a sort of double top or lower
• DJ30 might actually touch/broke the upper line of the channel and then retreat considerably

 TRADING:

The dividend season is approaching in Australia and I wouldn't enter the market now. After completing wave B (upward) the Index SPI200 might stage a considerable dip. that could actually be a good short.

The S&P500  might be close to the very top.

DJ30 seems to have stage an overextended minor wave 3 and could stage a retracement (minor wave 4).

As the trading risk is getting too high  it might not be worth it till we see more clarity.

This time I'll give it a miss till I see some good signs of reversal.

click to enlarge

 

click to enlarge

 

click to enlarge

 

click to enlarge

 

click to enlarge

 

click to enlarge

USDJPY SETUP, Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Hi Traders,

Before getting into our usual analysis (today: USDJPY) let me remind you that:

FIRST: The WEDNESDAY FREE TRADING WEBINARS are still on. They are hosted by ELLIOTT WAVES & FX TUTORS and presented by Mario D. Conti.

Please register for the date and time that works best for you by clicking the link below: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/8514371004062869248

TOPIC: Each Wednesday we will give away precious SETUPS, ENTRY POINTS & TARGETS determined by means of a combination of Elliott Waves + Candlesticks + Fibonacci + Oscillators.

WHEN: Each Wednesday, 7:00 PM AEST (Sydney Time).

HOW LONG: 45 minutes

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

AUDIO: Participants can use  their computer's microphone and speakers (VoIP) or telephone. Australia: Toll +61 3 8488 8992

Access Code: 508-768-150. Audio PIN: Shown after joining the webinar.

NOTE: Don't forget to RSVP on your Meetup and please, connect 5 minutes earlier.

SECOND: We are running a new ONLINE ELLIOTT WAVE TRADING COURSE.

This course will be held through GoToMeeting which allows everybody to interact through each session.

FEATURES

• Attendance: limited to 6 people
• Structure: 5 online sessions of 2 hours each
  • first 3 sessions about
    • Elliott Wave Theory
    • Elliott Wave Labelling
    • Shape, Amplitude and Extensions of waves
    • Type of retracements
    • New set of rules
    • Candlestick Theory
    • Identify Reversal Candlesticks and Pivot Points
    • The "Wave Oscillator" and other Indicators to confirm Pivot Points
    • Fibonacci Targets
  • the other 2 Sessions: identifying Set Ups, Triggers, Entry points, Exit Points

• Price: $1,500 (GST included)

When:

• Monday, April 8,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
• Tuesday, April 9,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
• Thursday April 10,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)

then

• Monday April 22,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
• Tuesday April 23,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)

To RSVP please EMAIL to info(at)FXTutors.com.au to receive instructions

ANALYSIS of USDJPY

SETUP of USDJPY, Wednesday March  27, 2013, (please read our disclaimer)

The USDJPY is setup for the last leg up. The Elliott people calls it "the 5th of the 5th of the 5th"

This means that we've virtually completed all waves up except the very last ripple.
 
TARGETS
 
very likely: 95.2-95.3 and 95.54
likely: 96.28, 97.74 and 98.50
possible: 99.00 and 99.63
maybe: 100.00 and 101.200

ENTRY POINT

In the 1-hour chart below, let the chart reaching the area 94.84-95.00 and then retracing down a bit to 94.45 or so. That should be a good entry for a long position to the targets above described. 

Make sure that you entry after a clear Reversal Candlestick in your 15 min chart.

Also, make sure the "wave oscillator" shows a clear reversal in your 15 min chart. 

1-hour chart: click to enlarge 



 

 

Monthly chart: click to enlarge 

 

 

Weekly chart: click to enlarge 

 
 

Daily chart: click to enlarge

 
 

4-hour chart: click to enlarge 

 

EURUSD, Tuesday March 26, 2013

Hi Traders,

Apologies for missing the last two weeks on FX Tutors. I actually published 2 newsletters on ElliottWaves.com.au but my ITs messed it up badly. Similar faith had the new type of video-newsletter on YouTube. BTW, my newsletter will stay free although you may have to login to get it sometimes in the future.

Before getting into our usual analysis (today: EURUSD) let me remind you that:

FIRST: The WEDNESDAY FREE TRADING WEBINARS are still on. They are hosted by ELLIOTT WAVES & FX TUTORS and presented by Mario D. Conti.

Please register for the date and time that works best for you by clicking the link below: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/8514371004062869248

TOPIC: Each Wednesday we will give away precious SETUPS, ENTRY POINTS & TARGETS determined by means of a combination of Elliott Waves + Candlesticks + Fibonacci + Oscillators.

WHEN: Each Wednesday, 7:00 PM AEST (Sydney Time).

HOW LONG: 45 minutes

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

AUDIO: Participants can use  their computer's microphone and speakers (VoIP) or telephone. Australia: Toll +61 3 8488 8992

Access Code: 508-768-150. Audio PIN: Shown after joining the webinar.

NOTE: Don't forget to RSVP on your Meetup and please, connect 5 minutes earlier.

SECOND: We are running a new ONLINE ELLIOTT WAVE TRADING COURSE.

This course will be held through GoToMeeting which allows everybody to interact through each session.

FEATURES

• Attendance: limited to 6 people
• Structure: 5 online sessions of 2 hours each
  
  • first 3 sessions about
    • Elliott Wave Theory
    • Elliott Wave Labelling
    • Shape, Amplitude and Extensions of waves
    • Type of retracements
    • New set of rules
    • Candlestick Theory
    • Identify Reversal Candlesticks and Pivot Points
    • The "Wave Oscillator" and other Indicators to confirm Pivot Points
    • Fibonacci Targets
  • the other 2 Sessions: identifying Set Ups, Triggers, Entry points, Exit Points

• Price: $1,500 (GST included)

When:

• Monday, April 8,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
• Tuesday, April 9,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
• Thursday April 10,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)

then

• Monday April 22,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
• Tuesday April 23,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)

To RSVP please EMAIL to info(at)FXTutors.com.au to receive instructions

ANALYSIS

SETUP on EURUSD, Tuesday March  26, 2013, (please read our disclaimer)


SITUATION

The Euro, now at 1.2864, is yet to complete a pattern of 5 waves down (numbered in magenta). This pattern constitutes the "major wave 4" and it's made of 5 waves. See the monthly chart below.

Although it went nicely through a  set of 1-2-3-4 waves (in magenta), it didn't complete the last one yet which is unfolding with a 5-3-5.

More precisely, we have only a mere "5-3" out of a 5-3-5, where this "3" is usually called "2 step pattern".

After performing this "2 step pattern"  (see monthly and weekly chart below) as I predicted months ago, the Euro resumed its way down and it is now heading to 1.19 and maybe to the area 1.120-1.065.

This will be possible with 5 waves down of a minor grade, the first of which seems to be completed.

Monthly chart: click to enlarge 

 

 

NOTE: the "2 step pattern is the middle formation that links a 5-3-5 down or a 5-3-3".

 

In the weekly chart below, after point 4 (in magenta) we had 5 waves down followed by this "2 step pattern" which is always made of 3 waves.

 

This will be followed by some 5 waves down (occasionally, only 3) 

 

 Weekly chart: click to enlarge 

SETUP: After the "2 step pattern" in parole the EUR completed the first of  5 waves down in the Daily Chart and it's ready to bounce back upwards to make wave 2 (in 3 waves up).

Trade: long
Likely target: 1.3040
Possible target: the area 1.3120-1.3134
Maybe: 1.3160

Please check the 1-hour chart: the EURO doesn't seem to be really convinced to rebound, meaning that there could be another attempt to reach 1.283-1.284. Just keep your eyes open.

Daily chart: click to enlarge 

 

 

 

 

 

4-hour chart: click to enlarge 

 

 

 

 

 

 1-hour chart: click to enlarge 



AUDUSD, Sunday March 3, 2013

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar that set a low at 1.018 could stage a very limited rally before finally heading South and start a new major downtrend.

SITUATION:

In the monthly chart below the AUDUSD has completed all 3 major waves up typical of a "Giant Two-Step-Pattern" started in April 2001 and ended in July 2011 at 1.1085.

After performing wave 3 up to the top (there are supposed to be only 3 waves), we started 4 retracement waves out of 5 (in magenta) in trading range.

NOTE: see the "breakaway" candlestick around number 4 in magenta , which is a powerful reversal pattern (4 doji candles + a wide red real body).

 

click the chart to enlargs, esc to exit

 

 
See the 4 waves in magenta in the weekly chart below

 

click the chart to enlargs, esc to exit

 
As shown in the daily chart below there should be a little correction upwards to the resistances at 1.0317-1.0336-1.034 followed by a major downtrend.

Note: the above targets could be a good Entry Point for a great short, provided that you wait for the complete development of an a-b-c up (two-step-pattern).


 

Se wave 1 and 2 in grey and the the double bottom in the 4-hour chart below to indicate the start of the new little trend up

Finally, please use the "wave oscillator" plotted in the 1-hour chart - or lower - before entering the new trade.

SHORT RANGE TARGET: to 1.0317-1.0336 or even 1.034.
MEDIUM RANGE TARGET: 0.939 and 0.88.

 

THE WAVE OSCILLATOR

The wave oscillator in the 15-min chart below shows that the new little retracement up is already started.

 

 

 

HOW THE OSCILLATOR WORKS

The red and grey lines swapped positions as soon as the new uptrend started: the red lines - which run inside in case of downtrend - moved outside and the grey lines moved inside, showing a new uptrend.