AUDUSD retracing soon?

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AUDUSD - ANALYSIS

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8801) reached exactly the area predicted and it should stage a retracement to 0.8926-0.8929 and higher.

NOTE: be careful as the 1-hour and 4-hour charts don't show any major reversal candlestick yet. Meaning that we have no confirmation and the Aussie has still some potential to reach the area at 0.8728-0.8709 before starting the retracement in parole.


TARGETS:

T1: the area 0.8926-0.8929.
T2: the area 0.8977-0.8996
T3: the area 0.9072-0.9083
T4: 0.9111

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays 5 minor waves downwards. This is the completion of 1 of 5 waves downwards.

In the 1-hour chart " all waves seem to be in place but I suspect that there could be a last moment surprise if the very last leg down develops a mini-extension downwards.




Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

GOLD bouncing back

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Gold has been trending down since September 2011. Is there a chance of hitting an absolute minimum in the upcoming months? Are we on the verge of  new major uptrend?

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GOLD - ANALYSIS

The Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) is supposed to be implemented from Monday Sept 29. Theoretically, from this day on, each of the 20 signatory banks - as well as the ECB - should stop selling Gold for sometimes.

However, there's the chance for some persistence of the bearish market till mid October due to the side effects of the termination of the quantitative easing.  The combination of these events is likely to bring weakness to both Stocks & Commodities, included Gold.


CONCLUSION

Gold,  now at $1225 is bouncing back to 1241-43 and even 1248-51 to form the minor wave 4 (see targets in the 1-hour and 4-hour chart) which would soon be followed by another leg down to 1180-82 and maybe 1164-54.

ELLIOTT WAVES

By using the Elliott Waves you can reasonably pinpoint a bottom or a top if you know how to label the waves correctly.

In the case in parole, Gold might finally sink to a new "historical low" at 1064-1054 or $1089. The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to forecast a low at $1050.

This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable. If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow.

TARGETS:

first up to

T1: 1234-36
T2: 1248-51
T2: 1257-60

then down to the area 1180-82, followed further down by

T1: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
T2: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
T3: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)




Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator - daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge