SILVER still weak

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SILVER - ANALYSIS

The weekly chart shows that Silver is staging "the last leg down" to the target around $15 (see also the 4-hour chart) .

Meanwhile, in the very short term, the XAGUSD (now at $19.452) should conclude the present minor downtrend in the area $18.988-18.937 before bouncing back up to $19.91/97 (see daily chart).

At that level the downtrend should resume.

TARGETS:

Bottoming soon around:  $18.98-18.93
Then up to: $19.91-19.97
After this top: resuming the downtrend to $15



ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart reveals that the triangle ended at the top of "wave e4" and a new downtrend started from that top.

The 4-hour chart displays only 8 waves down (out of 9). Once wave 9 is completed (to $18.98-18.93 or so), the whole set of waves will be labelled "wave 1" (out of 5), the first wave of the new downtrend.




NOTE

Note the accumulation period of 13 months in the monthly chart and the accumulation period of 53 weeks in the weekly chart.






Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDSGD good entry

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SGDUSD - ANALYSIS

The Singapore Dollar (now at 1.2457 ) is set to temporarily climb to the area 1.2577-1.2681 or even 1.2608-1.2615 (see daily chart), before resuming the main downtrend started on Jan 23.

The present level (1.2457 ) seems to be a good entry point for a long. Similarly, the top in the area 1.2577-1.2681 (or maybe the area at 1.2608-1.2615) could be your entry point for a very good short.

The USDSGD should be able to get to 1.22 before staging the next significant retracement.

TARGETS:

topping soon at:
likely: 1.2577-1.2681
possibly: 1.2608-1.2615

Then down to:
likely: 1.22
possibly: 1.19140


ELLIOTT WAVES


The weekly chart reveals that the triangle ended  with "wave e" and stared a downtrend from there.

The daily chart displays only 3 waves down (of 5) and the development of the two-step-patterns up to 1.2577-1.2681 or 1.2608-1.2615.





Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

SPI200: END OF THE LINE FOR NOW

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SPI200 - ANALYSIS

The Australian SPI200 (now at 5630) might stop and reverse at the target at 5662 - or in the area 5662-5747. Both the Aussie SPI200 and the US S&P500 seem to be determined to end it this week.

Unless there's a last minute surprise this appears to be the end of the line  for now, although NOT the absolute end of the line. The explanation in  the Elliott Waves section below.



TARGETS:
topping soon at:

likely: 5662
possibly: 5747

Then down to:
possibly 5200 in 61-100 days (2.0-3.3 months)

ELLIOTT WAVES


What we see now in the 1-hour chart is that the "impulse wave 5" - of a very minor degree - is pointing up to the area 5662 and maybe 5747.

But what is similarly clear in the monthly chart (and in the weekly chart) is that this is only the top of "wave 3", leaving us another 18-21 weeks to implement the "retracement wave 4" down to 5200 (likely with an a-b-c-d-e).

Once started and completed "the retracement wave 4" down to 5200 the SPI200 should make an absolute top at 5878 and maybe the area 5940-6029.

For now, this will be only the top of minor wave 3 (daily chart)






Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD retracement

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AUDUSD - ANALYSIS

The AUDUSD (now at 0.9312) started a rebound that should bring it back up to the area 0.9370-0.9374 and maybe the area 0.9454-1.9461

But unless it breaks the resistance at 0.9667 it should resume the major downtrend to 0.8600 and the area 0.8420-0.8300.




TARGETS:
first up to:

likely: the area 0.9370-0.9374
possibly: the area 0.9454-0.9461

then down to:

likely: 0.9086
possibly: 0.8600
maybe: the area 0.8420-0.8300

ELLIOTT WAVES

What we see now in the 4-hour chart is that the "retracement wave 4" - of a very minor degree - is pointing up to the area 0.9370-0.9374 and maybe the area 0.9454-1.9461 (short term trend).

But what is similarly clear in the monthly chart (and in the weekly chart) is that "wave 5" downwards is still missing. Hence, the Aussie is still pointing down to 0.9086 and below (long term trend).





Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

S&P500 diving soon?

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S&P500 - ANALYSIS

Hi Traders,


The S&P500 appears to be really close to the end of the line and it might stage the very last rally to the area 2007-2073 before reversing a 5 years uptrend.

Please note that, at this stage, if anyone screams "abandon ship!" some high frequency trading systems might trigger a havoc.

Hence, the level of risk is very high and might be wise staying at the window till a genuine reversal takes place.



ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the end of major wave 3. Note that some Elliott traders think that we it's the end of major wave 5.

Whatever it is, it doesn't make much difference. We still expect a reversal pattern.

Note in the monthly chart that unusual a-b-c in red. I labelled it that way for 2 reasons:

• in the Russel 2000 Index that pattern is a real a-b-c "Flat"
• each leg is made of 3 or 7 waves (no 5 leg waves), a clear indication of a "Flat" retracement pattern.

BTW, the 4-hour chart and the 1-hour chart display an extension in wave 5 and an exhaustion gap. All signs of impending end of the 5 years uptrend.

Finally, note the 45 degrees Gann line in the monthly chart. 

DISCREPANCY:

Both the Gann line in the monthly chart and the 36 weeks vertical line in the weekly chart indicate the mid of November for the end of the uptrend.

Consequently, they might be a "Truncation", ie. an irregular a-b-c Flat where "b" is higher than the orthodox top.  We'll see. 

TARGETS:

first up to 2007-2039 or even 2073 
then down to
likely: 1892-1888
possibly:1732 




Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge