S&P 500 Topping?

Hi Traders,

S&P 500 now at 1854.00

The major uptrend of the S&P 500 - started on March 6th 2009 at level 665.09 - might be topping soon due to a 5 years Time Turning Point (TTP) expiring around March 3-7th, 2014.

Furthermore

The above TTP coincides with the 36-37 weeks TTP described in weekly chart below (see the red vertical lines).

This TTP also coincides with the 36-37 days TTP described in daily chart below (see the red vertical lines)

TARGETS

Gann theory suggest a top at 1895.
Fibonacci calculations suggest a top in the area 1895-1908.

Then down to the area 1409-1273.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Basically, next week we might witness the mighty "5th-of the 5th-of the 5th" followed by a major turnaround.

Check the weekly chart below. As the uptrend between March 2009 and March 2014 is nothing more then "major wave 1" made of 5 waves, this turnaround could be labelled major retracement wave 2.

NOTE:

In the weekly & daily  chart, Wave 5 - started with a low on Oct 2011 -  contains "an extension of an extension" within wave 5 of a smaller degree. Another extension occurred withing wave 3 - started on Sept 16, 2012.

According to Frost & Prechter this situation might cause Major wave 2 to be a steep correction.

Furthermore, according to the same source, a "normal" correction would stop "within the span of travel of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree" (area 1409-1273 in the weekly chart).

But when you have an extension within wave 5, the correction could reach the bottom of wave 2 at 1337, which BTW, happens to be right in the middle of the target area (see weekly chart).


FUNDAMENTALS

There doesn't seem to be any "fundamental" reason for such a retracement. Hence, a "political event" or a "natural disaster" might trigger the correction.

ie: Are the Russians going to claim Crimea from Ukraine?




S&P 500 - weekly chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - daily chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 topping?

Hi Traders,

S&P 500 now at 1854.00

The major uptrend of the S&P 500 - started on March 6th 2009 at level 665.09 - might be topping soon due to a 5 years Time Turning Point (TTP) expiring around March 3-7th, 2014.

Furthermore

The above TTP coincides with the 36-37 weeks TTP described in weekly chart below (see the red vertical lines).

This TTP also coincides with the 36-37 days TTP described in daily chart below (see the red vertical lines)

TARGETS

Gann theory suggest a top at 1895.
Fibonacci calculations suggest a top in the area 1895-1908.

Then down to the area 1409-1273.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Basically, next week we might witness the mighty "5th-of the 5th-of the 5th" followed by a major turnaround.

Check the weekly chart below. As the uptrend between March 2009 and March 2014 is nothing more then "major wave 1" made of 5 waves, this turnaround could be labelled major retracement wave 2.

NOTE:

In the weekly & daily  chart, Wave 5 - started with a low on Oct 2011 -  contains "an extension of an extension" within wave 5 of a smaller degree. Another extension occurred withing wave 3 - started on Sept 16, 2012.

According to Frost & Prechter this situation might cause Major wave 2 to be a steep correction.

Furthermore, according to the same source, a "normal" correction would stop "within the span of travel of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree" (area 1409-1273 in the weekly chart).

But when you have an extension within wave 5, the correction could reach the bottom of wave 2 at 1337, which BTW, happens to be right in the middle of the target area (see weekly chart).


FUNDAMENTALS

There doesn't seem to be any "fundamental" reason for such a retracement. Hence, a "political event" or a "natural disaster" might trigger the correction.

ie: Are the Russians going to claim Crimea from Ukraine?




S&P 500 - weekly chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - daily chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

WTI OIL last wave up, for now

OUR ANALYSIS WILL SOON BE MOVED TO THE NEW WEBSITE. WE'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED

Hi Traders,

The WTI OIL (now at 102.52) is set to start the last jump to the area 103.73-104.32 before engaging in a  retracement to 100.71 and maybe to the area 99.21-98.83.

TARGETS:

first up to area 103.73-104.32
then down to:

likely: 100.71
possibly: area 99.21-98.83
maybe: area 97.82-97.23

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the completion of wave 4 around 91.30 and the nearly completion of wave1. The 4-hour chart shows 8 waves up out of 9 and so the 1-hour chart. Wave 9 should reach the area 103.73-104.32. Then we should have a reversal.

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge