USDJPY perfect entry

Hi Traders,

The USDJPY (now at 101.78) did exactly as predicted.

Although another small drop to level 101.63-101.45 is still a possibility, it should start soon the very last major rally to 106.59 or higher.

TARGETS 

likely: 105.50
possibly: 106.59
maybe: area 107.55 -108.52

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the uptrend that started at the end of OCT 2011.

4 major waves up are clearly identifiable (in blue) but major wave 5 is not completed yet. 

The daily chart clearly displays 4 intermediate waves up out of 5.

The 5th wave up has just started with minuette wave 1 & 2, as you can see in the 4-hour chart.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDGBP uptrend

Hi Traders,

It's not a mystery that the Pound is commonly named "the b...ch" by traders. It can be really tricky, you wouldn't disagree.

I have to confess that I was abit too complacent last night and I was stopped out.

But I am sort-of-excused as I witnessed too many irregular formations on the Pound in the last 5 years in terms of:

• unusually complex retracement formations
• unusual high number of double-triple tops and bottoms
• uncommon number of broadening formations

In practice the GBPUSD gave me quite a hard time but, in positive terms, I think that this is part of my never-ending learning curve.

ANALYSIS

Although the GBPUSD (now at 1.6616) is heading to 1.6763-1.6820 and maybe 1.7045-1.7186, it might stage a limited retracement very soon.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.6763-1.6820
possibly: 1.6880
maybe: area 1.7045-1.7186

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show that this is the last wave up (wave 5). The daily chart shows that this is the 5th of the 5th. Hence: watch carefully the 4-hour and the 1-hour chart to spot the end of the trend.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USD, strong again

Hi Traders,

As it often occurred in the past, I disagree with many traders. I believe that whatever the FED is going to say, the US$ is going strength. Meaning: the weakness of the USD is over and it's going to start a new rally.

Hence, here some of my findings

COMMODITIES

GOLD, now at 1284, should top around 1290-1300  and resume the downtrend
WTI OIL, now at 100.31, should top around 100.71 and resume the downtrend

MAJOR CURRENCIES

AUDUSD, now at 0.9025, should top around 0.9036 and resume the downtrend
EURUSD, now at 1.3667, should top around  1.3698-13700 and resume the downtrend
USDCHF, now at 0.8955, should resume the uptrend to 1.078 and over

INDICES

S&P500, now at 1802.75, should top around 1810 and resume the downtrend
DAX30, now at 9411.25, should top around 9,900-10,000 and resume the downtrend
FT100, now at 6605, should resume the downtrend straight away
SPI200, now at 5211, should resume the downtrend straight away

ps: apologies, no display of charts this time

Cheeers
Mario D. Conti