EURUSD dive

Hi Traders,

Exceptional economic data in US and the perspective of the QE3 tampering  (not to mention the Syria matter) has revved up the US dollar against all major currencies and commodities.

If the Euro dives through the area 1.3205-1.3172 it might have a long way to go, as announced few times in the last month.

However, I believe that Mr. Mario Draghi and Mrs Christine Lagarde might sell some of the Euro reserves to keep the currency from falling too quickly, and this include the AUD and the SGD.

Meaning: they would short AUDUSD (target: 0.8578-0.8510) and USDSGD (target: 1.2576-1.2557) to long EURUSD. Hence keep an eye on them.

TARGETS

likely: area1.3205-1.3172

possibly: 1.3045-1.3021

maybe: area 1.2777-1.2742

ELLIOTT WAVES

The Euro stared "wave e" (daily chart) that should take it to 1.27 or lower.

ENTRY

Theoretically, I might bounce back to 1.3266 or even to the area 1.3276-1.3280. One of them could be your ideal entry point (check the 1-hour chart).

Always wait for the confirmation of the "wave oscillator" in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.

WARNING

The volatility, the volume and the open interest (futures & options) are supposed to rise, augmenting the risk of being stopped out. Hence, choose carefully your entry point.


monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour  chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDJPY, weak try

Hi Traders,

USDJPY doesn't convince me as it doesn't seem to have the strenght to break the triangle's upper line (displayed in the daily chart)

If it doesn't breakout above 99.27, it would start a new downtrend to the area 92.66-91.60

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays 5 waves up (starting from bottom left) followed by "wave a" and "wave b" (top right). We now started "wave c" which it will be made of 5 legs down. Waves 1 & 2 (out of 5) are already in place. Wave 3 (downwards) should start soon.

ENTRY

None of the wave oscillators shows any clear signal yet, meaning that we have no confirmation yet and the direction is not clear yet. Hence, wait for a clear confirmation

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDSGD, double top

Hi Traders,

USDSGD (now at 1.2787) displays a double top in the daily chart and the whole set of 5 Elliott Waves upwards seem to be completed. Although there could be a modest rally to 1.2820, the pair seems to be ready for a good downtrend .

TARGETS

likely: area  1.2743-1.2707
possibly: 1.2636-1.2630
maybe: 1.2576-1.2557

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows a huge triangle and a breakout to the upside which will be followed by a pullback. If it's correct that the whole set of 5 Elliott Waves upward is completed, this should lead irrevocably to a new downtrend.

Both the double top and the reversal candlestick on point 55 (top right) of the daily chart seem to support this scenario.

ENTRY

Wait for the pullback to 1.2820 and a confirmation of the Wave Oscillator in  the 4-hour chart (it's not there yet) before getting in.

NOTE:

If the pair rallies above 1.2869, the whole Wave configuration needs to be re-assessed. 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge