GBPUSD recharge

Hi Traders,

GBPUSD now at 1.5246.

After the top in the area 1.5600-1.5551 - check the top at "2" in the weekly chart below -  the Pound  resumed the main downtrend. It's now performing a temporary pullback.

SITUATION

Unless there's a breakout of the support at 1.5233 the GBPUSD should bounce back to the area 1.53241-.53622 where the major downtrend would resume.

SHORT TERM TARGETS:

(up) likely: area 1.5354-1.5362
(down) likely: area 1.5073-1.5159
(down): likely: 1.4984

LONG TERM TARGETS (down):

likely: 1.4777
possible: 1.4552
maybe: 1.4345

ENTRY POINT

Entry point for a short: possibly the area 1.5354-1.5362.

Please wait for a reversal candlestick and a confirmation from the "wave oscillator" - on your 4-hour/1-hour  chart - before entering your trade.

click the chart to enlarge

From the top at 52 - in the daily chart below - the GBPUSD started 5 major waves downwards. Wave 1 and 2 are already in place and we now witness the very first stage of wave 3 downward.

click the chart to enlarge

See the top of wave 2 at 52 in the 4-hour chart below.  From that top the pound performed 3 waves down and it's now bouncing back to build wave 4,  up to the area 1.53241-1.53622.

click the chart to enlarge

The 4-hour chart below shows the wave oscillator. Note the last 2 vertical lines which provided the entry/exit of your trade. The last red vertical line (to the right) for the entry followed by the last black vertical line for the exit.

click the chart to enlarge

1-hour chart below. Check the targets (blue horizontal lines)

click the chart to enlarge

 Wave oscillator plotted on a 1-hour chart below. Check the targets (blue horizontal lines)

click the chart to enlarge

AUDUSD, let's get on this pullback

Hi Traders,

Check this analysis down to the 15-min chart. There's the chance for a nice pullback of the AUDUSD.

As predicted a couple of weeks ago the AUDUSD, now at 0.9956, started a sharp downtrend and right now it's staging a rebound which is still part of the main downtrend.

Note: If it doesn't stop at 1.011 this pullback might rally further up to the area 1.014-1.0154 and maybe the area 1.0199-1.0222 

Then the downtrend should resume towards the area 0.9853-0.9837, then level 0.9412 and 0.9388. 

TECHNICAL SETUP

In the weekly chart below the Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in magenta) and it's now performing wave "e" downwards with 5 waves (starting from the top in 5d). 


PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

temporary pullback:

Likely: 1.0114
Possible: 1.156
Maybe: 1.0221

main downtrend:

Likely: area 0.9853-0.9837
Possible: 0.9412 and 0.9388
Maybe: 0.8952, 0.8877



weekly chart - click to enlarge

The Gann timing in the daily chart below suggests that our "wave 4" (the pullback) could top around May 17-20.


daily chart - click to enlarge

See also the targets (blue horizontal lines) of the pulback in the 4-hour chart below

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

See the imminent pullback confirmed by the Elliott Waves count in the 1-hour chart below: 5 waves down with the last one further broken down in 5 waves

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

See the bullish double bottom  in the 15 min chart below

15-min chart - click to enlarge

EURAUD, a risky matter

Hi Traders,

The EURAUD is now at 1.3000. The weekly chart below shows a nice downtrend followed by a clear "round formation".

When this occurs (long downtrend + round pattern) analysts usually project (one or twice) the distance between the low at 55 and the "neckline" to get some idea of the targets. The targets so calculated are: 1.2910, 1.4205 and 1.5487.

Well, plausible but this time there might be a catch. 

SETUP

Check the waves after the low at 55: they don't seem to have the strength to get to 1.42 (yet) and the whole group of waves looks more like a continuation pattern of the previous downtrend.

If this is correct, the EURAUD may not be able to go through the area 1.3160-1.3228 and, even in the event that it gets to 1.33 it should still retrace to 1.2150.

For the "magicians" of timing, note the 12 weeks cycle that should mark the top of wave 5 this week.

click the chart to enlarge

Note also the cycle of 126 trading days in the daily chart below. More importantly, starting from the low at c4, we might have already 4 waves in place with the 5th one on the way to the area 1.3160-1.3228.

click the chart to enlarge

TRIGGER

Keep an eye to your own 4-hour chart and especially your own 1-hour chart to be able to get the new top.

If this is followed by a nice reversal candlestick + a reversal pattern in the "wave oscillator" you have your entry point downward.

Finally, check the channel in the 4-hour chart below. The pair touched the channel 4 times already. This is usually an indication that the breakout is not too far away.


click the chart to enlarge

AUDUSD, staging a pullback

Hi Traders,

As predicted a couple of weeks ago the AUDUSD started a sharp downtrend and right now it's staging a rebound which is still part of the main downtrend.

Note: If it doesn't stop at 1.011 this pullback might rally further up to the area 1.014-1.0154 and maybe the area 1.0199-1.0222 

Then the downtrend should resume towards the area 0.9853-0.9837, then level 0.9412 and 0.9388. 

TECHNICAL SETUP

In the weekly chart below the Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in magenta) and it's now performing wave "e" downwards with 5 waves (starting from the top in 5d). 


PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

Likely: area 0.9853-0.9837
Possible: 0.9412 and 0.9388
Maybe: 0.8952, 0.8877



weekly chart - click to enlarge

The Gann timing in the daily chart below suggests that our "wave 4" (the pullback) could top around May 17-20.


daily chart - click to enlarge

See the imminent pullback confirmed by a nice "hammer" candlestick. See also the targets (blue horizontal lines) in the 4-hour chart below

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

WTI OIL, are you in?

Hi Traders,


The OIL - now at 95.91 - started the nice rally that I predicted last week.

I also predicted a pull back to the area 94.83-94.56 before starting the new uptrend.

It did it religiously - slightly below, to level 93.37 - before staging a nice reversal candlestick (hammer).

Still, be careful as it could bounce back again to the area 94.45-95.05 which  could be a good entry area.

TARGETS:

Likely: 97.68-98.22 and 100.38-100.67
Possible: 101.97
Maybe: 103.40-104.00

SETUP: 

In the weekly chart below, after the a-b-c (in red), the Oil performed 4 waves up and its now building the 5th one up.

The daily chart below shows that the Oil performed 4 waves up already (out of 5).

Note that it touched the top trend line 3 times. This time it should go trough it as it completed wave 4 (downward) with a nice hammer candlestick.

Expect the target in the area 97.68-98.22 to perform (all or part of) wave 5 as indicated in the 4-hour chart below but it could rally further up to 100.38-100.67.

ENTRY POINT:

Possibly, entry in the area 94.45-95.05.