EURUSD, all according to plan

Hi Traders,

All according to plan? It looks like.
Still, be cautious as markets are getting jittery.

Last week I say that EURUSD was likely to bounce up to 1.31 before plunging. It dropped religiously (although it went further up to 1.32).

Now, if this analysis is correct, this should be the last chance to get quite a long trade down to 1.2512 - 1.2330 - 1.2120 - 1.1950 and below, unless the BCE intervenes to stop the slump (I doubt it). 

Supports for the short term:

• 1.2891-1.2880-1.28738

TARGETS (short term)

likely: 1.2891 - 1.2878 - 1.28690
possible: the area 1.2779-1.2748
maybe: the area 1.2687-1.2668 


Check some target the weekly chart right below

ELLIOTT WAVES



In the daily chart below, the EURUSD performed a large 5dwn-3up-5dwn-3up-5dwn downward to 1.2039. See point "55" at the bottom of the chart.

This wave was followed by a two-step-pattern (1up-2dwn-3up). See point "53" at the top of the chart.

This two-step-pattern should be followed by another large 5dwn-3up-5dwn-3up-5dwn. Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart (in magenta).

Note: if this analysis is correct, this large wave down should be the very last chance to witness a large scale downtrend for the Euro, maybe for few years.

Similarly, in the 4-hour chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves downward) to 1.2745, followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).


If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards of a lesser degree if compared to the daily chart.

Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart. Wave 3 is not completed yet.

WTI OIL, time for long

Hi Traders,


The OIL - now at 95.54 - seems to be ready for a nice rally, up enough for a good trade.

TARGETS:

Likely: 97.50-98.00
Possible: 100.30-100.90
Maybe: 103.5-104

SETUP: 

In the weekly chart below, after the a-b-c (in red), the Oil performed 4 waves (sideways) and its now ready for the 5th one up.

The daily chart below shows that the Oil bounced back from the top trend line 3 times and it's now hovering there once again. This is an indication that there's fair enough energy for the new uptrend.

However - even in the likely event that it pulls back to the area 94.83-94.56 (quite possible) - the commodity should start the new uptrend soon.

Expect the first target in the area 97.50-98.00 to complete wave 3 as indicated in the 4-hour chart below.

Then again, a new pullback named "wave 4" will take place, followed by the last rally (possibly) to the area at 100.30-100.90

ENTRY POINT:

Possibly, entry in the area at 94.83-94.56. Hence, don't get into this trade straight away.

EURUSD, time's running out

Hi Traders,

As in the weekly chart below, the Euro - now at 1.3078-79 - is moving  quite precisely with a cycle of top and lows every 34-36 weeks. Although the next 34 weeks cycle will come to an end next week, the Euro seems on the way down already.

Trading sessions in the 1-hour chart showed traders taking both sides quite equally in the previous 3 days and this might be a clue of the market shifting from bullish to bearish.

Moreover, the top at 1.32431 didn't go much further then previous top at 1.32011 forming a sort of double top.

However, a short rally to $1.3094-1.31 might still occur before starting the new  downtrend.

ELLIOTT WAVES



In the daily chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 downward to 1.2039 followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).

If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards. Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.

Similarly, in the 4-hour chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves downward) to 1.2745, followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).


If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards of a lesser degree if compared to the daily chart.

Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.



Here are the targets as in the daily chart above

Likely: the area between 1.2990 and 1.2966
Possible: 1.298
Maybe: the area between 1.2779 and 1.2748

AUDUSD, Targets & Timing

Hi Traders,

AUDUSD started a violent downtrend as I predicted last week. The Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in the weekly chart) and it's performing wave "e" downwards in 5 waves. (starting from the top in d5), We now performing  wave 3 (out of 5) as in the daily chart.

The Gann timing suggest that the 5 waves could be completed by May 17-20.

As I said, this "depreciation" could be considerable and protracted for quite sometimes (more waves down) and could take the pair below the parity.


FUNDAMENTAL REASONS

The Budget Deficit is out of control.
The government is might increase the taxes which in turn will reduce the  economy expansion.
The RBA might lower its cash interest rate.
The Rating Agencies might decide to downgrade the government debt.
China might slow down further.

TECHNICAL SETUP

The present downtrend started at 1.03845 with wave 3 (of 5). Although there is a reversal candlestick (engulfing pattern) in the daily chart, the "three soldiers" in the 4-hour chart warn of a possible rebound in the area 1.022 to 1.0265 or higher.

PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

Likely: 1.0010,  1.000,
Possible: 0.9904, 0.9822
Maybe: 0.9788, 0.9386, 0.8516 and 0.8000



weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge